What Movie 5 Means For Book 7

Discussion for What Movie 5 Means For Book 7 (http://www.mugglenet.com/editorials/editorials/edit-damonk01.shtml) by Damon Klassen.

Suprisingly, you have convinced me. I thought that it would never be allowed to have a book and film so close together. People might die of excitement and then Jo would get sued... just kidding.
But actually, WB would love to get their hands on as much money as possible. The only thing that concerns me is that 6 days is really too close. People may have not finished the book by then, and they might not want to go to the cinema in the company of fans in case they have the last book spoiled for them. Also, suppose something bad happens in the last book, like Harry dies, or something else dreadful happens. All us fans may be in shock and not want anything to do with HP. we will need time to recover before the film comes out. hmm. my ideas are not really very likely. but hey. i'm talking rubbish now.
good editorial anyway.

wow... i never thought about that. I would really love to believe you are right. You made some very good points, and I can definitely see WB trying to capitalize off of the added hype surrounding the Potter franchise.

I've always hoped for a 07/07/07 release for the 7th book and also wondered wy WB's would realease movie five during the summer when PoA didn't do so well.
Your editorial was very well written, presented and reasearched. It makes me very hopeful for a 07/07/07 book 7 realease. Well done! :clap:

Wow, nice point! I really hope you're right, I'd love to have a whole Potterweek like that. It does seem really likely, though, put in that perspective. I never thought about it like that before. Wouldn't that be just awesome?

And embememu-- I don't think any real HP fan would be able to keep away from it, no matter what Jo did to Harry or our favorite character in Book 7 (which won't be possible for me, as my favorite character fell through the veil long ago :sad: ). This movie looks the best yet, and though I probably will be in mourning for a few weeks--maybe even months--later for the series and character(s) who didn't make it, I wouldn't be able to resist seeing the movie. After all, if this editorial's prediction comes true, the movies will be all we have left to look forward to in the Potter universe.

I'm going to be SO SAD when it's finally over, though! :upset:

Two things:

1. If you're right, then awesome.

2. If you're wrong, you probably have a future in business planning?

I have to say, you have done your research. But there is something I would just like to say. If I were a businessman, I would release the movie before the book. The hype dies down quite a bit after the books' release (or at least it does here in Australia) but is very prominent before. Releasing the movie before the book would give the most profit, I feel.

I think the 7th book might be released on July 31, 2007--Harry and Jo's birthday. A week between the movie and the book seemed too close, but I don't really care as long as they release it on 2007, and not 2008.

Releasing it on the 31st would be kind of cool, but Potter book releases have always been (at least as far as I know) on Saturdays, and the 31st won't fall on a Saturday in 2007. I'm hoping for 07/07/07, because that would just be too cool, I love the significance of it!

I hope I can make some comments about the film business, both touching on either Harry Potter or the Potter films without getting stoned (killed by rocks, not drunk, or drugged)!

I've worked in the film business. I used to draw animated special effects with a pencil until computers made my specialty obsolete. People in the business do not know tons more about film than informed fans do. One thing they do know, though, is how money often affects the look of the film they see in the theatre relative to what it could have been. They ought to! They're the one's making the extra money!

My 17 year old nephew has not read any of the Potter books (Please, don't stone him either! He's really okay, and mentioning this has a point). He could not make any sense out of the movie of "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire." I don't think he's stupid at all. I think he's right. There's just too much left out.I don't think you can make enough sense out of Movie #4 unless you've read the book first, which is just plain sloppy filmmaking.

I'm not slamming the makers of the film at any level, not at all. I'm coming to the defense of screenwriter Steve Kloves (did I spell his name right?). HPATGOF is already the most expensive film ever made without making the screenplay the proper length. The original draft probably was a standalone work of art. I gnash my teeth at how much of a narrative mess the "Goblet of Fire" when a tiny piece of the film itself gives enough evidence of how good Mr. Kloves is.

When Voldemort calls Lucius Malfoy his "slippery friend" in the film, he replies that the face he puts before the public: "That is my true mask. I love how he speaks of a false face being 'true!'

That's rant number one. The last concerns "Harry Potter" series film score composer John Williams. I wish that Peter Jackson had used Williams rather than James Newton Howard to score "King Kong."

Mr. Howard provided a very atmospheric score to Jackson's labor of love. But the first "King Kong" had the very first full symphonic film score. Max Steiner's score blew the heads off the audiences back in 1933, and the new "Kong" should have done the same. As good as it is, the new score doesn't do that. I believe that if John Williams had scored "King Kong," it might have been the highest grossing movie in history, with nothing else changed.

I'm not implying that James Newton Howard is a budget score choice or anything....this is a rant, only a loud opinion, and should be taken just as seriously. Which is really, not at all.

although i can see the sheer marketing genius of 07/07/07, i hope they dont release it then because its the two year anniversary of the london tube bombings, & i really don't think our national day of mourning for all the people that died should be overshadowed by a book. especially considering the nature of the book (hello war & the killing of innocent people) & the fact that london features in the series rather a lot. it just doesnt seem sensitive.

You've made some really good points, and I would love for the book to be released in the summer of 2007. I agree that to release the book on the anniversary of the London Tube bombings might not fly though, and I think that has to be taken into consideration. Businessmen might not care about the sensitivity around the day, but I think JKR would. Anyway...you've really done your homework and I think you have made excellent points and you might be exactly right! :) I can't wait until we know for sure!

This was a lot of great research and a well constructed editoral. Kudos on that. The theory, unlike some we read, is pretty well backed up. If anything the placement of the movie does help a sooner rather than later release, and we'll take whatever we can get :) I do however, have a agree that the bombings would be a horrible thing to overshadow. I'm American, but with 9-11 I feel like I know how it feels. July 31 would be very cool... Not quite as cool as 7/7/07 but 7/31/07 has a flow to it too!

Good work keep it up!!!

I'm hoping for a 2007 release date for the final book but I'm not optimistic that it'll happen. There are so many loose ends for Jo to tie up. Jo said in the past that she'd have difficulty in letting go since the series has been a major part of her life for so many years. Before she let go of HBP she spent three months just rereading it to be sure it was exactly what she wanted, therefore I think it safe to assume she'll take the same care with the final book.

I think the real signal for the final release will be when she gives us the title. If I remember correctly, the books have been released about 6 months after she releases the title. If she gives us the title for Christmas, maybe we can expect the final book in 2007. If not, I think we're looking at 2008.

Nice editorial and hopeful, too. But, I agree with a couple of other posters that July 31st might be the magic number. It's JK's birthday, Harry's birthday, and doesn't conflict with the bombing anniversary. (But as it's on a Tuesday, I bet they would move it ahead to August 3.)

However, since several important things happen in the tube station, like Harry meeting his first wizard friend and first friend period, and Sirius being recognized, it might be appropriate to release the book on 7/7 and dedicate its release to those who lost their lives, as King's Cross Station is important to the books and also is where one of the bombs was planted. (The movies are not filmed there, I don't think.)

I also agree that the movie might do better if released before the book. The movies tend to feed off of a desire for another book, not the other way around. If people have already read the final book and know how things wrap up, it may not be as big of an incentive to go to the film. But, if we are anxiously waiting for the book and just can't stand it, what better way to get a Potter "fix" than go see the movie and discuss it at length until book seven appears?

Nice editorial, Damon. Thanks.

If 07/07/07 is too soon, I sure don't want 08/08/08! :p

If it was hard to follow the movie plot of GOF without reading the book, I'm anxious to see what they do trying to compress the longest book into the same 2 hours and a half.

I think this was a very well written and great editorial, and I sincerly want it to be the way described, but I have two things to add...
1. If she does kill Harry or other important characters (I belive she will :( ), as mentioned above, I think most people would still be mourning and not want to see the movies as much. I personaly think it will take forever to recover because Harry, Ron, and Hermione are real people in my mind; And I am sure that others feel the same way.
But even so....
2. Stupid terrorists! They ruin everything! I wish that 9-11 hadn't happened, and that the London Bombings hadent happened, because of the severe loss we all feel towards humanity, but WHY did it have to be on July 7th!?! WHY? Of any other day they could have done it, they picked a date that HP fans were going to look foward to.... I know they probably weren't thinking about the Harry Potter series at the time, and that it would have been just as aweful not matter what day it happened, I just needed to get out my anger! WHY!!!!

A very good editorial. I had almost given up hope for a 7/7/7 book release, but you've made it seem still possible to happen. Though everyone's different opinions in this thread are making me lose hope again. Great job, nonetheless.. lets just wait and see what happens. It's true that after the books are finished, the movies won't make that kind of money anymore, since some people will feel the Harry Potter fandom is over.. but it's also true that if WB wanted to cash on the hype, they'd release the movie before the book.

I don't know what to think anymore.

I can't stand it.. I need official confirmation on this issue right now.
Why haven't we received absolutly no information about Book 7's writing progress this time? With HBP, we got the title a whole year before the release.. in addition to a few lines describing Rufus Scrimgeour, as well as three chapter titles. Why the sudden hush this time? I think giving small juicy teaser-tidbits wouldn't harm at all, right?

It takes month's to get a book from final draft to the presses and then to the book stores. Many cases it's almost two years. Granted with HP those rules do not apply. It took about six month's to get HBP to the presses and to the stores.

By reading Jo's diary entries it sounds as if she's still deep into writing the book and struggling from time to time. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a 7-7-07 release. It sounds nice, but I wouldn't want Jo to rush just to hit a certain date for a publicity stunt.

Not to mention she is a perfectionist, so I can't imagine release dates being overly important to her. It's not as if she needs the money.

As for HP movie 5. 7-13-07 are all magical numbers. Jo prefers 12 over 13, but it is a magical number, no less. I would say WB picked those dates for that simple reason. I'm surprised it isn't released on Harry's B-day.

Good editorial. 07.07.07 is indeed still possible.
But for myself I hope the book will be published December 2007, because we have already Movie 5 in the summer next year. Book 7 would be the best Christmas present 2007.

You have given me hope again!!!

This makes my day. :) You presented a very convincing argument. Thank You!

You make some very good points relating to marketing, but you absolutely fail to keep one major thing in mind: The book has to be finished.

I am all for a 07/07/07 release. Apart from the date being awesome, it would mean that I started reading the series when I was 11, and the last book would be released when I was 17 - so that my ages would parallel Harry's, which I think is infinitely awesome.

But at the same time, I don't want her to release it. This is the last one. And yes, I will re-read them infinite times afterward, but this is the last time that I will be hovering in Barnes and Noble at midnight, nearly hyperventilating just from looking at the chapter titles. And though I know I'm going to speedread because I can't help myself, I want it to be good.Jo's got a huge story to tell, and a whole lot of things to wrap up. And I want to make sure she does it. I want #7 to be a masterpiece. And if that requires another summer, I will gladly allow her that.

The door on JKR's site opened for the first time on July 28, 2004, revealing the title Half-Blood Prince. On August 16, she showed us the passage about the lion-man (Rufus Scrimegeour). On October 31, it was three chapter titles. And on December 20, it was the announcement that HBP had been completed, after which her publishers announced the release date.

Don't you see how much preperation went into that? The title was released almost a year before the book was. A passage was released 11 months ahead. Chapter titles nine months ahead, and the book was finished seven months ahead. All we have gotten from behind the door this year is two WOMBAT tests. No chapters, no passages, no titles - in fact, in July, she said she came up with yet another title, not narrowed it down. This book is simply not written yet - much less ready to be released. And to be honest, that's fine with me.

The only chance I can see for July 7 is if we get a HUGE piece of news from behind the door before Christmas. Otherwise, bets are pretty much off, and patience is on.

It was a great editorial, with obvious research done, but I'm still not convinced that it will be released 7/7/07. As people before me have pointed out the book has to be DONE before it can be released. Also, WB would be smarter to release the movie BEFORE the book because there will still be all the hype coming from the book and what better way to get your hp fix than to see the fifth movie? Also, I think that after the book the hype will greatly die down. After this book there is no more theorizing; it's done, over (which makes me very sad to even think about). Also, the fact that we have gotten NO information about the book yet makes me think it could well be summer 2008 that we see it come out... which would honestly be ok with me. I'm not ready for it to be over!!

Well thought out analysis! I hope your right, I personally don't want to wait for December 07' for book 7.

It was an excellent editorial and as much as I long for a 07/07/07 release, the book does have to be finished. HBP took six months to go to press, which would mean that JKR has to finish book 7 around January, which I don't think is going to happen, as JKR hasn't even given us the title yet.

Very interesting. You have certainly done your homework. There must be an explanation why WB is releasing the movie in the summer if Christmastime is more profitable. This could be it. If so, I don't agree with WB that the book hype will necessarily translate into increased moviegoing, but that's another story.

I also thought JKR would take longer to finish the book, but book 7 posters have already been sent to Borders bookstores, which adds weight to the 7/7/7 theory.

Hirayuki, I agree with you 100% about GOF. I thought it was the absolute worst movie in the series. This is not quite the right thread for the comment, though.

Wow, that actually made sense.

Great editorial! A 07/07/07 release date seems really likely in that perspective. If you're right, it'll be the best summer ever ^^

[FONT="Lucida Console"][SIZE="2"]WOW really the only reason i thought that a 7/7/07 release date was a no-go was BECAUSE of the movie, but you really made a lot of sense out of it. WAY 2 GO, DAMON!:clap:




:p
This is my first ever post on CoS. My life is finally complete!
:gryff:

Good editorial, but to me, 7/7/07 would be the best day ever if both the OOTP movie and the 7th book were released on the same day, but i think us "Potter Addicts" might go crazy. I'd be like "Oh no! What do i do first- go see the movie, or read the new book?!":p

But i've also wondered why WB has found such a liking for summer releases. While other future blockbusters are being released earlier (such as the 3rd Spider-Man, Shrek, and Pirates of the Carribean), it's still not the best part. November just seemed like the best time, since Harry Potter just seems to have the feel of a holiday movie. Talking about a bunch of kids at school in the middle of the summer just seems a little weird.

:clap: Yay, this was my first post too!:D

Well, this is probably totallly wrong but I'll throw it out there anyways.
Maybe Jo wants things with the last book to be like the first one. No one new anything before they picked up the book other than the title, and probably a little hype and whatever they read in the little summary section on the inside cover or back of the book. Again, this is probably completley wrong but it was a thought I'd had so I thought I'd throw it out there for consideration.

Great editorial and I hope you are right. Very cool way of looking at things when most people assumed it ment death to 7/7/07. I was thinking that we could still get the book next year as long as Jo releases the title around Christmas time. But with what others pointed out such as the Title in July, the Chapter titles and the passage about Scrimgeour... I'm starting to think maybe not. Those sorts of things hadn't even crossed my mind... ugh... I don't know what to think anymore!
Jo!! Please give us anything!! Any sort of hint so I can stop running in circles like this!! It's extremely tiring!!

I think the movie is likely to come before the book.
1. Having the book first will show up the fact the movie is 2 books behind.
2. The book will be probably be more hotly anticipated than the flick because the flick's plot is known. Also they may want to use the movie to get as many people on board before the last book.
3. The book's marketing will probably be more complex than the movies'. JK may do more interviews than usual since this book is the last one and there will also be the usual "leaked copies" controversy.
4. If the book is slated for 2007 we will need a title soon.
5. Bloomsbury and Warner Bros stand to make more money by having the last book come out well after the movie. They will not want to induce "Potterfatigue" by having too much going on at once.

I'm sorry, all 7/7/7 possibility went out the window when terrorists hit london that day.

I'm in london and also know that JKR might've been tempted by a 7/7/7 release but however tempting that day would be, now that its a day of mourning and day where we will remember those who died, she isn't going to make it into a huge harry potter extravaganza. The last book, all the marketing hype and taking the media spotlight from the victims to her book. Hardly sensitive. And she will know this and she's not about to release a book, however anticipated on a day that is inappropriate. However 'cool' 7/7/7 looks, there just isn't any hope.

Just think how you americans would feel if she scheduled the book release on 9/11/07 - not nice is it?

My money is still on next year but released end of summer (Sept 1st?!) or end of the year. I want a complete book, one thats been finished thoroughly, all ties tied, all t's crossed, i's dotted. Not a book thats been rushed to be finished in time for a marketing date!! I'll wait as long as it takes to get the best book possible!

And i thank the heavens JKR isn't the type to be swayed by things like release dates that would be good for marketing - you think HP really needs a clever marketing release date like 7/7/7 to sell?? really??

Oh and those thinking 7/31/7 are forgetting that in the UK it'll be 31/7/7.

Very nice well thought out theory, but I don't think it will work. I have to agree with some of the others, if anything the movie will come first. I think that if the book does come out in 2007, it will be later on, like in November or December. Although, it really would be super cool if it came out on Harry and Jo's birthday, I am not counting on it.

I would love if the book came out on 07/07/07, but it just seems too soon!

Thanks for giving me hope again! :D

I'm sorry, this might just be me being blonde, but why does 31/7/7 as opposed to the American 7/31/7 have anything to do with anything Hedwighthegreat?

WB probably is expecting a summer release. However, keep in mind that the book audience is a small fraction of the movie audience. The film will sell 3 times as many tickets in its opening weekend as the book will sell, and it will sell ~5X more tickets than the book will sell copies.


The film garnered $249.5 million domestically and $540.3 million internationally (totaling $789.8 million). After such a huge opening, it should have been much more successful, but it made $87 million less than its predecessor. It also remains the only Harry Potter film to date that did not gross at least $600 million overseas and $800 million worldwide.

There are a couple of things to remember here. First, the box office success of any movie in a series depends largely on the popularity of the prior movie. PSS and CoS both were of middling popularity: data at both Box Office Mojo and IMDB both indicate that about one fifth of the audiences for both films considered them to be poor films. As a result, 80% (four-fifths) of the people who saw PSS saw CoS.

Therefore, PoA really should have done a bit worse than it did. Moreover, the big opening does NOT mean that it should have made more money overall: we expect sequels of popular films not to simply make less money overall, but to make more money in the opening days. Why? Well, 20% of the people who saw PSS disliked it so much that they decided to never see CoS. However, 80% of the people who saw it liked it, and half of those rated it to be a very good film. (Again, given Box Office Mojo and IMDB data.) So, we expect those people to rush out all the sooner.

So, sequels induce two patterns: fewer people seeing the movies overall, but more people rushing to see it immediately.


Also, as for the "legs," the difference between PoA and GoF or CoS is entirely due to the huge boosts provided by Thanksgiving and XMas in North America. (As the editorial notes, summer movie ticket sales in Europe and Asia are very low relative to winer ticket sales; this trend is spreading to N. America, too.) Give the proportional increases on the second weekend and the 5th-6th weeks that the holidays provided GoF, and PoA would have sold just as many tickets.

(The hypothesis that competition with other films had a role is very difficult to support: distributors tend to yank movies from theaters sooner in the summer because they are releasing many films at that time, and distributors get the lion's share of the ticket sales dollars during the opening weeks of a films release; so, it is not consumer-driven competition, but supplier-driven competition.)



Now, the big topic...... WHEN VII will come out. WB is expecting a summer release date, clearly. July 13th is a very strange time to release a big movie. The summer movie season basically ends in the US after the July 4th week. Occasionally there are big hits released after that - Pirates of the Caribbean II is a recent example - but more people are looking to see a movie in late May and June than in mid-late July.

However, what sells movie tickets? For one-time movies, two things: prior interest (as generated through advanced hype) and reviews (largely from critics, but also word-of-mouth). For movies in a series, it is down almost entirely to prior interest determined by the prior movies: after all, if you have seen a Harry Potter movie, then you don't bother about what the critics or your friends say because you already have an opinion on the films.


Now, here we have one huge exception. Now, probably "only" about 5-6 million people will buy VII when it first comes out. This is an odd sounding "only" for a book, given that the second biggest selling book of 2007 probably will not sell 1 million copies overall. (In 2005, I think that the second biggest selling book in North America sold about a third of a million copies: which were recalled after it was revealed that the author fabricated his life story!) However, this is a major "only" for a film: at todays average ticket price (~$6.70 prior to surcharges, which range from 1-2 dollars), that would be all of $33-40M in N. America. They'll be hoping for 3 times that.

Still, there will be a huge amount of Harry Potter related press prior to VII's release. There will be all the silly stories about stolen copies, who will die (not that most people have any idea who the characters are), and all of the geeky fans getting into costumes and staying out til midnight to buy copies. As before, a lot of the publicity will make fun of HP fans: but this is a case where there is no such thing as bad publicity. It will have Harry Potter on people's tongues, and things like that encourage people to see films.

So, the highly unusual release date (which probably would cost the movie ~5% of the sales that it might get if it were released a month earlier, where the opening box office would be bigger, and it would get a huge boost a couple of weeks later with the July 4th crowds) really suggests

If the film was released on 31/7/07 then that might be a fair thing I guess and maybe the book could be released on All Hallows Eve which I think is the Halloween in the US? After all this day is just before the Day of the Dead which might be appropriate as several people are going to die in the book and All Hallows Eve is connected to witches etc and magic which is what the books have all been about and the hype from the movie will be just dying down so Harry Potter frenzy can start up agian without too much time between the film and the book,

A question for you people in the US: Why are your dates different to those in the UK and Australia? I mean to me it makes more sense to have the day first as it changes daily and then the month as it changes less frequently and then the year which changes the least frequently. Can someone please explain why you do it differently and not quite as logically as way it is in the UK and Australia.

I don't think it really matters about which comes out first. I'll read the book and see the movie, so will most other people. I really don't care when the publishers or the movie makers get there money or who is first. The only thing I care about is when Jo finishes. Around Halloween , Jo said she was writing about LV. LV has to be at the back of the book, so we may get another early Christmas present from JO. Here's hopeing

I hope, I hope, I hope the book will be released summer 07! I don't care much about a specific date, I just can't wait for the book to come out! I thought, though, that July 7 2007 sounding like a perfect day for the book release, but as people have pointed out above it's the day of the London bombings and it would be insensitive to take the focus away from that.

But I also want the book to be a good book, and JKR taking her time to write it, not rushing to get it finished. With the OotP movie in July and Pirates III in May I'll get through the summer anyway. Though a new Harry Potter book, too, would make it my best summer ever...

I never heard that before that, there was talk of pushing OotP back to a November release, that does seem rather peculiar that they would change it then.

7-7-07 is to obvious of a date for Jo of some of her people at the publisher not to have talked about the possibility of releasing book 7 then, however i feel that we are to close to the obligatory deadline for when the book would need to be finished in order to go through the appropriate editing process etc, for them to release it in July of 07. my gut tells me like it might be more like a December or 07 release, but I am really hoping for July

For my husband's (and for that matter, my marriage's) sake, let's hope they're released separately... :lol:
Nice editorial, but I doubt that 7 will be released on 7.7.07 because it is the anniversary of the London Tube bombings (as so many others have said). I think that Jo is just a smidge more sensitive than that. I, honestly, would prefer the book and the movie to be released fairly far apart, with the movie coming out first. And to be completely frank, I'm going to be utterly worthless around 7's release, adding Movie 5 to the mix might just be too much for my system. I think that a Halloween release date would be pretty significant to the books since that is when Voldy attacked the Potters...
As for the title, perhaps Jo won't release the title just to keep us all in suspense about it. Would that be considered cruel?

all the best,
la femme

Wow, I never noticed that before, that both the films and the books were released so close together!! You've convinced me that the last book would be released on 7th of July, 2007!! Great job on the editorial :tu: :)!

Wow, I never noticed that before, that both the films and the books were released so close together!! You've convinced me that the last book would be released on 7th of July, 2007!! Great job on the editorial :tu: :)!

I agree, the tutorial was well written and interesting, it was very well done!! :clap:

Remember that JKR has been quite tight-lipped about Book 7. She has said that anything she says now would be a giveaway and that she doesn't want to throw away all the years she has invested in HP. I think she may be holding off on giving us any information until she's done or almost done Book 7. Maybe the room of requirement will open between the announcement that Book 7 is finished and its actual release date. Maybe she can't give us the title of Book 7 (once chosen) or chapter titles because it might give too much away. Maybe holding off on giving us info will keep us busy during the seeming eternity between announcement and release date. I think that Warner Bros. should release movie 5 before book 7. I also think that WB might have realized that 2 years between movie 4 and 5 is just too long and would force the release dates for HBP and Book 7 further back. I do agree with others though that I am hoping for some kind of Christmas present from Jo behind her door. PLEASE, Jo?

2005 had 5 books in addition to HBP to sell more than a million copies: James Frey's A Million Little Pieces ( The book Wimsey refered to in his post ), Khaled Hosseini's The Kite Runner, David McCullough's 1776, The Da Vinci Code and Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat: A Brief History.

As for the business side of the release date, Warner Brothers is well aware of when Book 7 will appear in stores and would not risk profit opportunities by sharing the movie opening with Book 7. As a marketer, it makes the most sense to seperate the 2 events and capitalize on the 2 largest seliing periods: Summer and Christmas. The built in audience for the movie and the book is large enough to drive revenue without needing the cross functional promotion of the other. Overload can occur even in the world of Harry Potter.

The driving factor is the release date of the book....Which, given JKR's past, will occur when the opportunity is high for school aged children to get the book and enjoy it. Considering the movie is slotted for the summer of '07, then the logical marketing move would to sieze control of the other time frame that fits JKR's history. The Christmas Season.

As the for the movie coming out in July, it is for slotting purposes to satisify the studios effort to reach the demographic market it desires while exposing the product to least amount of competition. Also, it ensures that theatre owners will have a much longer " selling season " in the summer of 2007. As Wimsey points out, Harry Potter has a built in audience that will guarantee a large opening weekend and a subsequent decent box office total. Combined with the other large franchises that will have sequels in the summer of '07 and you have a bonanza for the theatres and studios alike.

So, good work! I enjoyed the thought process of the editorial, but my limitations as a marketer dictate that I must disagree and conclude that the dates will be seperated for the reasons above.

I think Wimsey said most of the important information on how movie box office take works. I will reiterate that sequels do not ususually do as well as the first movie. In the US the biggest blockbusters are realeased in the summer, multiple viewings by kids (well 8-22 year olds anyway). The Christmas season is the second best time to release a movie, same reason more time for kids to see it. As examples look at the Star Wars movies. These are some of the biggest ones ever, especially in a series.

Now to the implications of the movie release relative to the book. I tend to agree with the group that states it would be best to have the movie come out first. This way the movie feeds off of the book anticipation, but the book also gains from the big movie hype (as in major dollars being spent on advertising). My guess is that the movie timing is based on schedual for the summer releases and trying to make them about 18 months apart. This works for time to make the movie as well as keeping the actors from aging too fast and not being suitable for the roles anymore. If WB also gets to ride on the book hype so much the better, but I doubt that they are going to try and time a movie release on the expectations of a writer being done by a deadline. The book will be done when its done, and might be delayed some for timing at Christmas or Summer depending on when JKR gets it finished.

Mercer
Elf of Old

Hmmm, good points those of you who disagree with the overall conclusion of the editorial. *sigh* Though the bright side is that we will get book 7 someday and I tend to agree that it might be overkill to have them come out within a week of each other. Although, the 7/7/07 date was cool, I see the point about the bombings, and think it's a very good one. Christmas is also a great time. What better present than the answers we've all been guessing?! Though, it will be a sad holiday if Harry dies! :upset: That wouldn't be very nice, would it?! :)

A question for you people in the US: Why are your dates different to those in the UK and Australia? I mean to me it makes more sense to have the day first as it changes daily and then the month as it changes less frequently and then the year which changes the least frequently. Can someone please explain why you do it differently and not quite as logically as way it is in the UK and Australia.

It is logical the way we do it. November 29, 2006- 8/29/06. We write it the way we say it, month, then day, then year.

I also think it would be more logical to release the movie before the book, but 7/7/07 would have been cool.

Thanks Casey for your explanation but we say it differently. We tend to say 29th November, 2006. I guess we find it logical to put in the order I stated for the reasons I stated. Therefore we would have called your 9/11 - 11/9. However as your emergency services number is 911 ane they were involved in the rescue at that time I guess that is appropriate. Our emergency services is 000 as that was easy to find on the old dial phones and it hasn't changed since. I guess we find 3 numbers the same easier to dial than 2 different numbers.

It makes you wonder why the bombers in London chose that date. Perhaps they had been reading Harry Potter and thought that the number 7 would bring them success.

No I think All Hallows Eve (Halloween) is quite an appropriate date for the release of Book 7. As has been said before - that's when it all started in Book 1. I wonder if the ending of Book 7 will take place on Halloween?

I don't know. 7/7/07 is a year after London bombings. And I'm not sure, but a week after premiere of the last book most fans would be still reading/rereading/writing on various forums/reading interviews with JKR where she explains everything.

I think Wimsey said most of the important information on how movie box office take works. I will reiterate that sequels do not ususually do as well as the first movie. In the US the biggest blockbusters are realeased in the summer, multiple viewings by kids (well 8-22 year olds anyway). The Christmas season is the second best time to release a movie, same reason more time for kids to see it. As examples look at the Star Wars movies. These are some of the biggest ones ever, especially in a series.

You will find that the last three Star Wars movies did nowhere near as well overseas as they did in the US: that was due simply to the fact that theater attendance is so low in the summer, especially in Europe. (The claim that Europeans have better taste in movies also predicts this: but note that Pirates and SpiderMan also did much more poorly overseas than they did in the US, at least relative to what you would expect given how November-December movies perform.)

As for November-December, it is not just kids attendance that goes up, but also adult attendance. Adults get vacation time and also are forced to look after kids for a short period of time in Nov. & Dec.: in June & July, they typically have kids enrolled in summer programs, and they themselves are working. Still, seeing movies is still considered a "summer" activity in America (a holdover from our days of drive-ins, which are nearly extinct now): we are moving towards the European box office patterns, but fairly slowly,


As for sequels, we should look on the bright side: Prisoner of Azkaban was only the 7th movie to sell over 40 million tickets AND bring back more people for its sequel. (Goldfinger, Toy Story, Fellowship of the Ring, Attack of the Clones, The Two Towers, and Shrek are the prior 6; only AotC might represent a case where it was the sequel that was responsible for the increased audience rather than the "prequel.") GoF was quite popular, too, and it is possible that video/cable/airplane viewings will bring back still more "Columbus Casualties."

IF VII comes out in the same month, then it could boost sales somewhat by reminding people of the series. However, news gets old fast: people will have forgotten about the release within a couple of weeks, and at this point there will not be much media hype about the release between the time that it is announced and when it actually happens.


My guess is that the movie timing is based on schedual for the summer releases and trying to make them about 18 months apart. This works for time to make the movie as well as keeping the actors from aging too fast and not being suitable for the roles anymore.

Well, keep in mind that the characters now are in their mid-teens: usually, these would be played by people in their early-mid twenties!

However, the 18 month schedule reflects the amount of time needed to put together effects laden movies. PSS and CoS both suffered from poor production (especially relative to Lord of the Rings) because they tried to make the films in a single year. (The Lord of the Rings movies were released 12 months apart, but primary filming took place over 18 months and concluded over a year before the first film came out; thus, they had much more time than it appeared.)


If WB also gets to ride on the book hype so much the better, but I doubt that they are going to try and time a movie release on the expectations of a writer being done by a deadline. The book will be done when its done, and might be delayed some for timing at Christmas or Summer depending on when JKR gets it finished.

Given JKR's prior writing pace, we should expect it this summer. One thing to keep in mind is that WB had to commit to a date well in advance: the distributors need to make their plans 12 months in advance. They almost certainly asked Rowling when she expected VII to be released, and their decision was based on what Rowling expected in the summer of 2006. There is no indication that JKR has hit any snags - she keeps saying that things are going well - but, as you noted, it is done when it is done. (Ah, tautologies! You can never go wrong.....)


2005 had 5 books in addition to HBP to sell more than a million copies: James Frey's A Million Little Pieces ( The book Wimsey refered to in his post ), Khaled Hosseini's The Kite Runner, David McCullough's 1776, The Da Vinci Code and Thomas Friedman's The World is Flat: A Brief History.

Ah! I was misremembering: I must have been remembering the sales from 2006. Still, the book sales for HP stand out in the crowd: one measures its success relative to other books in multiples rather than in raw numbers, which is saying something.


As for the business side of the release date, Warner Brothers is well aware of when Book 7 will appear in stores and would not risk profit opportunities by sharing the movie opening with Book 7.

WB cannot know when VII will be released, only when JKR thought that it would be released as of last summer. They only know one thing: it won't be 13 July!


As a marketer, it makes the most sense to seperate the 2 events and capitalize on the 2 largest seliing periods: Summer and Christmas.

They actually would do better if the movie comes out shortly before or after the book does. The hype around the book will be very ephemeral: it will be in the news for about a week before the book comes out. It will be forgotten by the main public within a couple of weeks. (Look at it this way: after a summer of insane gas prices, people already have forgotten that those prices ever existed and are buying SUV's again; if they cannot remember things that affect their pocket books so strongly, they are not going to remember things like Harry Potter!)


The driving factor is the release date of the book....Which, given JKR's past, will occur when the opportunity is high for school aged children to get the book and enjoy it. Considering the movie is slotted for the summer of '07, then the logical marketing move would to sieze control of the other time frame that fits JKR's history. The Christmas Season.

All of the prior books have been released in the summer, I think. Also, given JKR's prior history, books have come out about 18 months after she really committed to writing them. That would be this summer in this case.


As the for the movie coming out in July, it is for slotting purposes to satisify the studios effort to reach the demographic market it desires while exposing the product to least amount of competition. Also, it ensures that theatre owners will have a much longer " selling season " in the summer of 2007. As Wimsey points out, Harry Potter has a built in audience that will guarantee a large opening weekend and a subsequent decent box office total. Combined with the other large franchises that will have sequels in the summer of '07 and you have a bonanza for the theatres and studios alike.

Well, in this case, HP is the 500 lb gorilla: other movies will be worried about competition with it, as HP is guaranteed a huge opening weekend. The real competition will come not from movie-goers trying to decide between Harry Potter and (say) The Simpsons; instead, it will be The Simpsons pushing Harry Potter out of theaters. To a large extent, the distributors will make the choice for the consumers. OotP will have an even shorter theater run than will GoF: at this point, they are assuming that everyone who wants to see the movie will dash out to see it, and that word-of-mouth and reviews will not sway people one way or the other.

Still, news about the book will remind people who like the movies but who are not Harry Potter fans per se that there is another movie coming: but only if the movie comes out within a couple of weeks (one way or the other) of the book release. People just do not have long-term memories for things like Harry Potter (or gas prices or much or anything, insofar as I can tell!), and there will not be much mass hype about VII's release until shortly before it is issued.

One other factor possibly at work here, which may have been discussed earlier, is the relative costs of production and marketing a film. While few films could match the nearly 1:1 ratio used by many American beer manufacturers, the money alloted to "selling" the film is usually quite significant in terms of the over all cost of the film.

That being said, it would be natural to try to take as much advantage as possible from all the free publicity due to the news value of the arrival of the last book in the series. All the major newspapers and news magazines will feature the book's release, not to mention many of the video newsmags. It will even appear on the evening news. The dollar value of all this exposure would not be lost on the suits who decide these things. If the film does not do as well as anticipated, it will be hard to argue that they did not do all that they could to insure a success, except for making a better film. (But that would be some one elses' fault.)

Two points:

1) Jo hasn't finished the book yet - and it usually takes 6 months of promotion/printing etc to get the HP books ready for release

2) She would never release a book on the second anniversary of the London bombings. That would be in very poor taste

I enjoyed this editorial and, like many of you, I have always been enamored with the 07/07/07 release.

HOWEVER, I really don't believe that they would set up book 7 and movie V so close together. It doesn't make sense for long term gains at the box office. In many ways, the movie will be somewhat of a letdown following after the climax of the FINAL book to this wonderful HP series, no matter how well they make the movie. After reading your article and the multiple switches Warner made to the release date, I believe it is more likely that Book 7 will come out in November-December of 2007 for the holiday season. This timing would probably help sustain box office sales leading up to the release of the book.

If you are right, though, it will make for one incredilbe week of Pottermania!!!

One other factor possibly at work here, which may have been discussed earlier, is the relative costs of production and marketing a film. While few films could match the nearly 1:1 ratio used by many American beer manufacturers, the money alloted to "selling" the film is usually quite significant in terms of the over all cost of the film.

Indeed, the movie industry uses the promotional costs to claim that movies lose money in many cases. The heart of the dispute between Peter Jackson and New Line concerns this: Jackson et al. allege that the Lord of the Rings made a much bigger profit than New Line admits, and because he, the actors, production staff, etc., get a percentage of the profits, this is big money. (Given that New Line basically did not even bother to advertise the 3rd movie, knowing that the first two movies were basically gigantic advertisements for it, I would bet that Jackson is in the right here.)


That being said, it would be natural to try to take as much advantage as possible from all the free publicity due to the news value of the arrival of the last book in the series.

You have it! There is the potential for FREE publicity here. Now, movie studios might not lose as much to advertising as they allege, but you are absolutely correct, it is expensive. Moreover, this is not Lord of the Rings: WB has had to invest a lot of money to try and convince people that the movies no longer are like the fluffy, bloated Columbus films.



HOWEVER, I really don't believe that they would set up book 7 and movie V so close together. It doesn't make sense for long term gains at the box office. In many ways, the movie will be somewhat of a letdown following after the climax of the FINAL book to this wonderful HP series, no matter how well they make the movie.

Keep in mind that the "letdown" will be only for the 15-20% of the film audience who are hardcore Harry Potter fans. These people will rush to the theater regardless, and they will make up about 50% of the opening weekend. Because the non-fans make up an increasing proportion of the "later" audience, and because they obviously will have no "letdown," it won't hurt the long-term run of OotP.

As for the long-term run of OotP, there really won't be one. It will run hot and fast, and basically it will sell most of its tickets in the first week, just like the last two did. At this point, people know in advance if they want to see the next Harry Potter film: the ones who liked the last couple of movies will rush out to see OotP, whereas the ones who have given up on the series (i.e., the Columbus Casualties) won't turn up at all.


After reading your article and the multiple switches Warner made to the release date, I believe it is more likely that Book 7 will come out in November-December of 2007 for the holiday season. This timing would probably help sustain box office sales leading up to the release of the book.

OotP probably will be out on DVD by then. This is not the 1970's: films have very little presence in the box office 6 weeks after release (especially if they are sequels) never mind nearly 6 months later!

Hmmm... It really saddens me that WB only cares about hp for the $, but it does make sense. I mean, hp will NEVER be as popular as it will be when book 7 comes out, and it will be a huge money maker. But 6 days?! That's to soon! Some of us hp fans won't even have finished the book by then! In fact, I'm not even sure if I'm going to fight the crowds at midnight on 7/7/07 and not eat or sleep until I finish book 7, or just stare at the book, to scared to see the horrors and joys of what's inside and to finally end the hp series!(that was a mouthful) But that's wayyyy to soon!

Nice point...I hope it's an 07/07/07 release as my birthday is July 8th...that would be an AWESOME birthday present!

Very good editorial. I've been trying to convince myself of this for a while now, because it's the only explanation for the book and movie being released so closely together, but after reading your editorial, I'm full convinced.

the same thing happened with book 6 and then that following winter GOF came out and it was on the cover of magazines harry potter mania!!...and i remeber reading the spoiler that snape kills dumbledore!!

any one have any thoughts now that we have the book title??

I think the book might come out a few months after the next movie. All Hallows Eve (Halloween) sounds like a good time to me after all the book title has Hallows in it.

I have been reading on the ETR (estimated time of release) of Deathly Hallows and one question not being asked (or answered) which I think is really important is: HOW MUCH TIME PRIOR TO RELEASE OF THE OTHER BOOKS WAS AN ANNOUNCEMENT MADE CONCERNING THE DATE OF RELEASE?

For example, I think it would give us a really good indication of when the book will come out by looking at when the release of the Half-Blood Prince was announced. Was there 6 months before release, 12 months, 3 months?

My gut reaction to a possible 7/707 release is that it isn't feasible. JKR is still writing which means edits have yet to be made. Lets say, best case scenario, the book is finalized on March 1, 2007. That would leave only 3 months prior to release for advertising, planning, and all of the other hoopla that accompanies a potter release.

Does anyone have that kind of info? If we know how long the announcement came before release of the other books, we can count backward from the possible dates to see if a release on that date is feasible.

********I hadn't read Obsessor's comment but I think that the timing for HBP makes it clear that a release of DH will not come until late next year (October 31st? - just in time for Xmas shopping) at the earliest. It may make sense to market the DVD version of GOF at the same time as the release of DH to capitalize on the peak interest in the series.

My opinion is that the movie and book will be released within days of each other. That way both will be a stunning success.I'm excited as I await the summer ,since I am a crazy potter fan 24/7!!!

I don't think anyone has pointed out that the release of the film matches up with the start of the summer holidays for schools in the UK, which is obviously when all the kids will suddenly have lots of time on their hands to go and watch it! You would think that around that time would be the best time for the book to come out too. I'd like a 07-07-07 release (the sooner the better!). I don't think that date should be ruled out because of the anniversary of the London bombings. On the first anniversary it could have been seen as a bit disrespectful but not so (in my opinion) for the second anniversary. However, I reckon Harry's/Jo's birthday may be the best bet -- we can watch the 5th film and have enough time to reread the 6th book ready for the Grand Finale!

I was almost convinced until I read about 07/07/07 being the anniversary of the London bombings. When Book 6 came out right after the bombings, Jo said that she had been planning to read the chapter "The Other Minister" at her reading, but due to the events, she chose the chapter about Fred and George's joke shop. So I do think she is sensitive to what that day means to people, and I doubt she would make that the release date.

I also do think that having the book and the movie come out within 6 days of each other would be too much. Each would overshadow the other, whereas releasing them separately would make fans focused just on each one. Some other poster was right - two deaths happen in this book; it WILL be tragic. Maybe we'll just want to stay at home and mourn. If the characters who die are in book 5, will we really want to go and see them on film? We are so in tune with Harry's world that what affects him affects us, and I know that I would still be getting over characters' deaths by six days after reading about them. I would not be going to that movie.

Really, I guess, all this speculation is rather pointless. When it happens, it will happen, and I doubt us COSers will have much say in it.

This just in: Harry Potter and the Deathy Hallows will come out on July 21, 2007.

Pat yourself on the back, Damon. You were... well, not exactly right, but close, anyway. :D

I think you can consider yourself vindicated, Damon! A week after rather than a week before doesn't change your reasoning.

It's interesting that some people's objections were the London bombing and the book coming out before the movie. They were right, too!

Although you were off by 3 weeks there is a correlation to be made between the OOtP Movie and book 7. I beleive that 1. Jo is in control of the distributors of the book and the movies. She never set out to be rich, but set out to deliver a clear message to the people. Now that her story is so successful she would not want that message to be thawrted because of the desire for corporate profits. 2. Recall that Jo said that she cringed at giving to much away in OOtP as related to the Final installment. I dont think she wanted there to be too much of a seperation in the release of the OOtP movie and the release of HPDH, so she would not have to avoid obvious questions that would give away the finla install. The movies are pared down versions of the books whch means that the clues given in the movies are closer tothe essential pieces of the puzzle. So the questiion is begged.....we learned a lot in HBP, but have we gone back and done a thorough look at what she meant by giving away too much in OOtP...What did she mean????:relax:

my favorite harry potter book is ootp and i have read it zillions of times :D so i have loads of speculations. :hmm: That book is packed with clues!!!!