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Old May 19th, 2010, 11:31 am
lcbaseball22  Male.gif lcbaseball22 is offline
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Oscars 2011

Is it too early for predictions?

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article...-complete-list

http://www.thefilmexperience.net/Awards/2010/tally.html

http://www.indiewire.com/article/for...e_2011_oscars/

http://www.oscarfrenzy.com/commentar...-a-first-look/


Browsing through those lists I think these are the "heavy hitters"

Biutiful (directed by: Alejandro González Iñárritu, starring: Javier Bardem)
Black Swan (directed by: Darren Aronofsky, starring: Natalie Portman, Mila Kunis, Winona Ryder)
Hereafter (directed by: Clint Eastwood, starring: Matt Damon)
Inception (directed by: Chris Nolan, starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page, Ken Watanabe, Michael Caine)
Love and Other Drugs (directed by: Edward Zwick, starring: Jake Gyllenhall, Ann Hathaway)
Shutter Island (directed by: Martin Scorcese, starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Mark Ruffalo, Ben Kingsley, Michelle Williams)
The Tree of Life (directed by: Terrence Malick, starring: Brad Pitt, Sean Penn)
True Grit (directed by: Joel and Ethan Coen, starring: Jeff Bridges, Matt Damon, Josh Brolin)
The Next Three Days (directed by: Paul Haggis, starring: Russell Crowe, Elizabeth Banks, Liam Neeson)
The Way Back (directed by: Peter Weir, starring: Colin Farrell, Ed Harris)
You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger (directed by: Woody Allen, starring: Josh Brolin, Anthony Hopkins, Naomi Watts)

However, Aronofsky has never been recognized by the Academy and (while I loved it) I don't think Scorcese's latest will garner more then technical nods, if anything. And it should be well known by now I dislike most of the Coens work, but the cast is too great to ignore



Ok, so how about some other films with potential...maybe these?

127 Hours (directed by: Danny Boyle, starring: James Franco)
The Adjustment Bureau (starring: Matt Damon, Emily Blunt)
The American (starring: George Clooney)
Another Year (directed by: Mike Leigh, starring: Jim Broadbent, Imelda Staunton)
The Conspirator (directed by: Robert Redford, starring: James McAvoy, Robin Wright Penn, Evan Rachel Wood)
The Debt (directed by: John Madden, starring: Sam Worthington, Helen Mirren)
Fair Game (directed by: Doug Liman, starring: Naomi Watts, Sean Penn)
The Fighter (starring: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, Amy Adams)
The King's Speech (starring: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce, Michael Gambon, Timothy Spall)
London Blvd. (starring: Colin Farrel, Keira Knightley, David Thewlis)
The Ghost Writer (directed by: Roman Polanski, starring: Pierce Brosnan, Ewan McGregor)
Knockout (directed by: Steven Soderbergh, starring: Ewan McGregor, Dennis Quid, Michael Douglas)
Never Let Me Go (starring: Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan)
Rabit Hole (starring: Aaron Eckhart, Nicole Kidman)
Rum Diary (starring: Johnny Depp, Amber Heard)
Somewhere (directed by: Sofia Coppola)
The Town (directed by: Ben Affleck, starring: Ben Affleck, Jeremy Renner, Blake Lively)


Now I've noticed a lot of places are listing Toy Story 3 but I think I'm gonna pass on that one...a 2nd sequel in an animation series deserving of Best Picture consideration? Give me a break. I like the original as much as anyone but now they are just exploiting in. Let's nominate Shrek 4 while we're at it, LOL. Oh, and this Facebook movie is another that has me puzzled. Sure it's being directed by David Fincher, but I fail to see how it will be more then just laughable, let alone Oscar worthy. Anyways, really on the surface it looks like there are maybe 20 strong contenders, but no doubt some of 'em won't live up to expectations. I think with the expansion to 10 nominees that if Inception is as great as we're all anticipating it WILL get nominated. At least I hope so...let's not have another TDK snub please. No excuses this time. Avatar was nominated last year so genre should not be a factor anymore. And the same goes for the final Potter films. Part One is probably not as likely as Part Two...but I'm really hoping they will reach their full potential and finally get some recognition from the Academy!


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  #2  
Old May 19th, 2010, 2:23 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

What's the pattern with the people in the brackets in the OP? Most of them are actors, and only some include possible directors (I haven't checked them all myself). :/ Usually just the director is credited with the film, not the actors.

But anyway, to the actual topic, regarding Aronofsky and recognition by the Academy, one must remember that Martin Scorsese's first and only Oscar was for The Departed. They normally come around after long periods of being berated with awesome.

I personally am a huge fan of the Coens, so they'll get the usual nods, but we won't know until the film is released whether or not their film will go all the way. I also think Toy Story 3 has a fighting chance, given the quality of Pixar films in general - it seems they can do no wrong at this point (even though I'm a bit sour about Up winning over The Princess and the Frog).

I don't think you're really taking into consideration the idea of a film about Facebook. It's not a lightweight film about social networking. It's about creating a business out of nothing into a multi-billion-dollar empire. It's not the story of becoming a fan or joining groups. It's the story of a man who has had a phenomenal impact on people's day to day lives and interactions with people. Really, to think of it as a film about Facebook is very limiting - it's about Mark Zuckerberg and his creation of an empire. Also, it's script has been reviewed very well and in detail here if you want to check it out.

I really do hope the Academy continues on it's line of taking in films from all callings in the BP nominations, however I'd like to see some foreign films in there if animated films are given a go. Films shouldn't be excluded from the top prize just because they're in a different language. *ahem* The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is the best film released thus far this year *ahem*


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Old May 19th, 2010, 3:42 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post
Films shouldn't be excluded from the top prize just because they're in a different language. *ahem* The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo is the best film released thus far this year *ahem*
Isn't there an own category for foreign language films? But I agree, I don't think they should exclude them for best picture consideration. As for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I doubt it will be nominated this year as it was released early in 2009 in Scandinavia and shown for the first time in September in the UK and in November in the USA. But I have no idea how this works


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Old May 19th, 2010, 4:26 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post
What's the pattern with the people in the brackets in the OP? Most of them are actors, and only some include possible directors (I haven't checked them all myself). :/ Usually just the director is credited with the film, not the actors.
The big names associated with the film as I see it. And actually if you look again I think you'll find that I listed the director for most of 'em...all but the ones who're basically unknown. Perhaps I should put "directed by" and then "starring"...would that make it less confusing?

Here's all your directors listed in the OP

Alejandro González Iñárritu
Darren Aronofsky
Clint Eastwood
Chris Nolan
Edward Zwick
Martin Scorcese
Terrence Malick
Joel and Ethan Coen
Peter Weir
Woody Allen
Danny Boyle
Mike Leigh
Robert Redford
John Madden
Doug Liman
Roman Polanski
Paul Haggis
Steven Soderbergh
Sofia Coppola
Ben Affleck (directing and acting)

Quote:
Originally Posted by moogirl View Post

But anyway, to the actual topic, regarding Aronofsky and recognition by the Academy, one must remember that Martin Scorsese's first and only Oscar was for The Departed. They normally come around after long periods of being berated with awesome.
Sure, but Scorcese also had SEVEN previous nominatations...he kept being nominated but just not winning. Darren Aronofsky on the other hand has been completely shut out of the Oscars...well, except for a few acting nods for his films The Wrestler and Requiem for a Dream.

Still, I'm looking forward to Black Swan...if only because Natalie Portman is in it. I've yet to see any Aronofsky films, but this one appears to have a Mullholland Dr. vibe, which I think is a good sign cause while Lynch's film was way over my head, I really enjoyed it nonetheless.

Quote:
Originally Posted by moogirl View Post

I don't think you're really taking into consideration the idea of a film about Facebook. It's not a lightweight film about social networking. It's about creating a business out of nothing into a multi-billion-dollar empire. It's not the story of becoming a fan or joining groups. It's the story of a man who has had a phenomenal impact on people's day to day lives and interactions with people. Really, to think of it as a film about Facebook is very limiting - it's about Mark Zuckerberg and his creation of an empire. Also, it's script has been reviewed very well and in detail here if you want to check it out.
Ok, maybe...but there's also the matter of no big name actors connected with it. Fincher isn't working with Brad Pitt or Morgan Freeman or Jake Gyllenhaal or Cate Blanchett or Jodie Foster this time. Who's he got? Err Jesse Eisenberg, Justin Timberlake, and Andrew Garfield

For now I see this as perhaps being in contention for a screenwriting nod but not Best Picture


Just for the record, these are my 10 Best Picture nomination predictions and why...

Hereafter (Clint Eastwood has been shut out of the Oscars for 3 years now, but he's still one of the highest profile directors so yeah...)
The Tree of Life (Terrence Malick, Brad Pitt, and Sean Penn...'nuff said)
The Way Back (Peter Weir has 6 Oscar noms under his belt, seems like he's due)
Inception (I think I've already made this one clear )
Love and other Drugs (great director, sounds like an interesting story, and has some nice star power)
True Grit (the Coens success with the Academy is hard to ignore as well as those big name actors previously mentioned)
The Next Three Days (the director Paul Haggis is a 2 time Oscar winner and screenplay nominee and he's got a terrific cast behind him)

And the other 3 are perhaps the bigger question marks cause the directors are relative unknowns...I'm going off the actors alone here-

The King’s Speech (starring: Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce, Michael Gambon, Timothy Spall)
The Fighter (starring: Mark Wahlberg, Christian Bale, and Amy Adams)
London Boulevard (starring: Colin Farrell, Keira Knightley, and David Thewlis)


I think it would be kinda fun if you guys make your predictions too and then we see who guessed the most correctly come next year.


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Old May 20th, 2010, 5:18 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by Noldus View Post
As for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I doubt it will be nominated this year as it was released early in 2009 in Scandinavia and shown for the first time in September in the UK and in November in the USA. But I have no idea how this works
It's one of the best films I've seen this year too, but films must be released in their country of origin before July or August of the year they plan on being submitted for an Oscar (film festivals don't count, so it actually only screened in the US in March of this year), so its year would have been last year. Additionally, they can't have been broadcast on television before being released in cinemas. Occasionally, the US market will get a foreign language film under an early release (I Am Love is going to be in cinemas June, I believe) and more often we'll get a handful of films in December that have qualified, but weren't necessarily nominated. Most of the time, we'll get foreign films a year or two after they've been released in their home countries, so it's really no surprise not many have seen more than one of the foreign film nominations until after the Oscars are over (I still haven't seen "The Secret in Their Eyes," and I'm not sure if I'll even get the chance in cinemas).



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  #6  
Old May 20th, 2010, 11:22 am
moogirl  Female.gif moogirl is offline
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Re: Oscars 2011

Quote:
Originally Posted by Noldus View Post
Isn't there an own category for foreign language films? But I agree, I don't think they should exclude them for best picture consideration. As for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I doubt it will be nominated this year as it was released early in 2009 in Scandinavia and shown for the first time in September in the UK and in November in the USA. But I have no idea how this works
Yes, but there's also a category for animated films. My point is: if animated films like Up are allowed in the Best Picture category, why not foreign films? Besides, the BP category has no qualifiers - foreign films are excluded on the basis of prejudice rather than technicality.

One weird example of Best Picture/Best Foreign Film anomalies is the Ingmar Bergman classic (and one of my favourite films) Cries and Whispers. It was nominated for the Best Picture category as a Swedish film, but for some reason was not nominated at all in the Best Foreign Film category (that year the prize going to Day For Night, a french film). There's probably a weird technicality behind this, like it not being Sweden's "official" submission, but it's still rather silly. If it's good enough to earn a BP nomination, it should have been honoured in it's own category. Up was.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
The big names associated with the film as I see it. And actually if you look again I think you'll find that I listed the director for most of 'em...all but the ones who're basically unknown. Perhaps I should put "directed by" and then "starring"...would that make it less confusing?

Here's all your directors listed in the OP

Peter Weir
Woah, I totally missed Peter Weir in the OP, I should keep my eyes open for that. After some research, it looks fantastic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Sure, but Scorcese also had SEVEN previous nominatations...he kept being nominated but just not winning. Darren Aronofsky on the other hand has been completely shut out of the Oscars...well, except for a few acting nods for his films The Wrestler and Requiem for a Dream.

Still, I'm looking forward to Black Swan...if only because Natalie Portman is in it. I've yet to see any Aronofsky films, but this one appears to have a Mullholland Dr. vibe, which I think is a good sign cause while Lynch's film was way over my head, I really enjoyed it nonetheless.
I didn't realise he hadn't been nominated at all. I haven't seen any of his films, but from the grapevine I'd gather this is a bit of a travesty.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Ok, maybe...but there's also the matter of no big name actors connected with it. Fincher isn't working with Brad Pitt or Morgan Freeman or Jake Gyllenhaal or Cate Blanchett or Jodie Foster this time. Who's he got? Err Jesse Eisenberg, Justin Timberlake, and Andrew Garfield

For now I see this as perhaps being in contention for a screenwriting nod but not Best Picture
Isn't this about the Oscars in general? I wasn't aware we were talking exclusively about the BP category. Also, big names doesn't mean quality, nor does small names mean bad quality. I've actually loved Eisenberg's work, most notably in Adventureland (a seriously unappreciated film in my opinion, one of my faves of 2009), and haven't seen JT in anything so am yet to judge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rastaban43 View Post
It's one of the best films I've seen this year too, but films must be released in their country of origin before July or August of the year they plan on being submitted for an Oscar (film festivals don't count, so it actually only screened in the US in March of this year), so its year would have been last year. Additionally, they can't have been broadcast on television before being released in cinemas. Occasionally, the US market will get a foreign language film under an early release (I Am Love is going to be in cinemas June, I believe) and more often we'll get a handful of films in December that have qualified, but weren't necessarily nominated. Most of the time, we'll get foreign films a year or two after they've been released in their home countries, so it's really no surprise not many have seen more than one of the foreign film nominations until after the Oscars are over (I still haven't seen "The Secret in Their Eyes," and I'm not sure if I'll even get the chance in cinemas).
The Oscar selection criteria for foreign films is so confusing - they should really simplify it. Particularly when it means films like Let The Right One In are passed over in the confusing shuffle.


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  #7  
Old May 20th, 2010, 11:36 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post
Yes, but there's also a category for animated films. My point is: if animated films like Up are allowed in the Best Picture category, why not foreign films? Besides, the BP category has no qualifiers - foreign films are excluded on the basis of prejudice rather than technicality.
Actually, it is possible for a foreign film to be nominated for best picture, though it only happens rarely. Just last year, Michael Haneke's "The White Ribbon" was nominated for cinematography. The problem isn't that they can't be nominated for these categories. The problem is that there is some prejudice against "foreign language" films in the academy, but how to fix that is anyone's guess.

Quote:
The Oscar selection criteria for foreign films is so confusing - they should really simplify it. Particularly when it means films like Let The Right One In are passed over in the confusing shuffle.
It's no more confusing than the selection process for any film (which is probably more confusing than you would think). It's just hard for large American audiences to appreciate the best foreign film category specifically because often those films haven't been released in the US yet. And actually, after they receive a nomination in that category, they're more likely to be seen by American audiences anyway. So while yes, that does make it more difficult for us to guess which one will win, it makes us more likely to see them in a way. Many foreign films wouldn't be marketed to even limited audiences in the US without at least having been an official submission from any particular country. Additionally, it was the Swedish Film Institute that decided to submit a different film other than "Let the Right One In" in 2008. It's a shame that countries are limited to a single submission, but the Oscars are more a celebration of American cinema than world cinema.



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Old May 20th, 2010, 12:47 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by Rastaban43 View Post
Actually, it is possible for a foreign film to be nominated for best picture, though it only happens rarely. Just last year, Michael Haneke's "The White Ribbon" was nominated for cinematography. The problem isn't that they can't be nominated for these categories. The problem is that there is some prejudice against "foreign language" films in the academy, but how to fix that is anyone's guess.
Yes, I know it's possible for them to get technical awards, but it's still a bit disappointing they're never in the running for the grand prize. But yeah, there's no fix that's obvious at the moment - we can only hope for some incredible foreign film to hop out in the near future and break down those barriers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rastaban43 View Post
It's no more confusing than the selection process for any film (which is probably more confusing than you would think). It's just hard for large American audiences to appreciate the best foreign film category specifically because often those films haven't been released in the US yet. And actually, after they receive a nomination in that category, they're more likely to be seen by American audiences anyway. So while yes, that does make it more difficult for us to guess which one will win, it makes us more likely to see them in a way. Many foreign films wouldn't be marketed to even limited audiences in the US without at least having been an official submission from any particular country. Additionally, it was the Swedish Film Institute that decided to submit a different film other than "Let the Right One In" in 2008. It's a shame that countries are limited to a single submission, but the Oscars are more a celebration of American cinema than world cinema.
I agree on the single submission thing - it's a bit hard to narrow it down to just one, considering many countries, like India, France and China, have such huge and diverse film industries.

However, I disagree on the "American" cinema sentiment - any film in the english language is considered, including British, Canadian, Australian and New Zealander films. I'm probably more aware of that aspect than you are, but still, the Academy has not been American for a very long time.

Also, you must remember that films in Native American Indian languages are classified in the 'foreign language' category and are released in the USA first. I don't know about America, but here in Australia there is lots of publicity for Aboriginal films, such as the recent gem Samson and Delilah.

It would be interesting to see how they select all these films - I didn't know there was a rigamarole for every category, though I guess I should have after The Dark Knight's score scandal.


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Old May 20th, 2010, 5:39 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post

Isn't this about the Oscars in general? I wasn't aware we were talking exclusively about the BP category. Also, big names doesn't mean quality, nor does small names mean bad quality. I've actually loved Eisenberg's work, most notably in Adventureland (a seriously unappreciated film in my opinion, one of my faves of 2009), and haven't seen JT in anything so am yet to judge.
Yeah, it is...but naturally discussion will lean towards BP cause it's the biggest award. It's the one I'm most interested in at least. Eh, yeah I guess he was ok in that film. And I know big names doesn't necessarily mean quality...but acting nominations and best picture nominations tend to go hand in hand. Actually I guess there are a few that get nominated without any acting noms...but it's unlikely they'll win. The only ones that come to mind are Return of the King (and we all recognize that got snubbed in the acting categories) and Slumdog. BTW, by big names I didn't necessarily mean popular...just wanted to clarify that. Rather I was referring to someone who's well known for quality output. I mean it's not like I was spouting off names like Megan Fox or whatever ()...you look at the names of those Fincher has worked with that I listed above and all of 'em typically have put forward great performances and made showings at the Oscars and/or Globes before.

I suppose they all have to start somewhere though. Maybe this will be Eisenberg's break through role and he'll garner an acting nom...


Oh, and as to some of the other awards besides BP, I don't have time to delve into them really deep right now but I'm thinking Leonardo DiCaprio could be nominated for Best Actor whether it's Shutter Island or Inception. He may have the same thing going on as he did in '06 with Blood Diamond and The Departed. The funny thing was, as I saw noted somewhere else, everyone was expecting the acting nod to come for The Departed since it was a Best Picture front-runner (and ultimately winner) and garnered all those other nods...but instead he got it for Blood Diamond. Hmm, I wonder what's gonna happen this time given his Inception performance is just as great as Shutter Island

And I fully expect Wally Pfister to be nominated for his fourth straight cinematography award...and he's clearly due to win, BUT we know that Terrence Malick's films always put forth extraordinary cinematography if nothing else so Pfister is gonna have some really stiff competition I would expect from Tree of Life's DP. I'd also like to see Eduardo Serra nominated for DH1, but we'll have to see on that...


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  #10  
Old May 21st, 2010, 12:56 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post
I'm probably more aware of that aspect than you are, but still, the Academy has not been American for a very long time.
If that were true, people who lived outside the United States wouldn't be constantly complaining about how the Academy habitually excludes foreign cinema. Obviously not all of the English-language films are American-made. No one said that. But most of the films have been under the scrutiny of the fickle American market in which one year a foreign film may do well but another it won't.

There are a small handful of English, Australian, Canadian and other English-speaking films that do well in the American market each year, but I would hardly think those films consistently represent the best in film (or perhaps a better phrase would be the full range of film) of each year in their respective countries. For example, I highly doubt many people would consider "Slumdog Millionaire" the quintessential English film. What we do see is some of the best in American film (and a much wider range of it) with bits and pieces of world cinema thrown in that American audiences have been or would be able to appreciate.

The Oscars aren't the be all and end all of film awards. Yes, a lot of people living outside the United States watch it and enjoy making predictions, and there will always be a handful of non-American films at the Oscars (and yes, foreign films can be nominated for the Best Picture category too), but the Oscars are just as much a celebration of American filmmaking as they are a celebration of American film appreciation.

I mean, the Academy would probably want the whole world to think they're the greatest indication of quality filmmaking, and perhaps it's true it's one of the few somewhat universal indicators of quality, but the simple fact it does exclude foreign cinema makes it clear it is not. We're all too happy to complain about the Academy's exclusion of foreign cinema. Why are we defending them as anything but an American institution?


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Old May 21st, 2010, 1:36 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by Rastaban43 View Post
We're all too happy to complain about the Academy's exclusion of foreign cinema. Why are we defending them as anything but an American institution?
I for one am not complaining...I could care less But then I've seen very few foreign films so I don't have the same level of appreciation.

To me the fact they've given foreign films their own category says enough. As such, I don't see how anyone can say they've been excluded.

It's an American award ceremony so yes, naturally there will be some bias (same as with the Grammy's or any other US award show)...but it seems like they give foreign films more then enough due if you ask me Heck, eight of 'em have even been nominated for the big award.

I'd rather not turn this into an America vs. The Rest of the World debate so I'll leave it at that...


Hey, how 'bout we get back to predictions? I'm curious to see what other people think and then we'll have something to look back at come next year when the nominees are announced and see who was right!


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Old May 21st, 2010, 3:10 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by lcbaseball22 View Post
Hey, how 'bout we get back to predictions? I'm curious to see what other people think and then we'll have something to look back at come next year when the nominees are announced and see who was right!
I'd rather make my predictions *after* I've seen the films, lol. I browsed through those lists. It seems one of them is wrong about their nomination predictions some 80-85 percent of the time. While I'm a big fan of directors, I know better than to put my faith in them to produce amazing films every time they try, lol. I have even less faith in actor power.

But I'm game for this discussion, I suppose, though it'll be more interesting as the year goes on and we've seen more films. A discussion about films that haven't even come out yet (for example, Inception), is too much based on hype, but I guess there's no harm in making a few predictions, hehe.

From the films I've seen so far this year, there are a few standouts.

Alice in Wonderland won't get much attention, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was nominated for Art Direction.

How to Train Your Dragon is one of the best animated films I've seen in a few years, so I'm sure it'll get at least a nomination.

Greenberg was a surprisingly good screenplay, but it wasn't much else so I doubt it'll be noticed.

I am Love might be the foreign film to watch this year. Tilda Swinton did an amazing job. The direction and editing were fantastic. I can see it being a strong contender in a number of other categories if only it weren't Italian, lol, but it is getting an early release, so who knows.

Chloe might see a nomination for Julianne Moore, but it was a rather mediocre film so that's a real stretch.

Fish Tank was really excellent, as was Animal Kingdom. Both of those non-American films could potentially get a screenplay nomination at the very least and perhaps even quite a few more.

The Art of the Steal was a great documentary, but Exit Through the Gift Shop has more appeal despite it sort of failing as a really great film.

I still have yet to see a really standout male actor, but I thought Paul Bettany did a great job in Creation.

I really hesitate to go further than that. It's really just too early to talk about it in great depth, lol. It seems like the biggest Oscar contenders are the films that are released in November and December, so if anything, perhaps a late release date is a good standard for prediction. :P



Last edited by Rastaban43; May 22nd, 2010 at 6:37 am.
  #13  
Old May 21st, 2010, 4:27 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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I'd rather make my predictions *after* I've seen the films, lol. I browsed through those lists. It seems one of them is wrong about their nomination predictions some 80-85 percent of the time. While I'm a big fan of directors, I know better than to put my faith in them to produce amazing films every time they try, lol. I have even less faith in actor power.

But I'm game for this discussion, I suppose, though it'll be more interesting as the year goes on and we've seen more films. A discussion about films that haven't even come out yet (for example, Inception), is too much based on hype, but I guess there's no harm in making a few predictions, hehe.
Eh, yeah I guess that's a good point

You see, I was just thinking that everyone is on a level playing field if we do it beforehand...if you wait until later in the year some will have seen the films and some won't have. At this point I don't believe I've heard of any films released yet that could make a strong showing come awards time...at least not for Best Picture, Best Director, etc. A couple films maybe like Iron-Man 2 and Shutter Island that could make a case for technical awards and perhaps Leo's performance will still be remembered next fall, but it came out awfully early in the year


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Old May 21st, 2010, 11:13 am
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Oh, and as to some of the other awards besides BP, I don't have time to delve into them really deep right now but I'm thinking Leonardo DiCaprio could be nominated for Best Actor whether it's Shutter Island or Inception. He may have the same thing going on as he did in '06 with Blood Diamond and The Departed. The funny thing was, as I saw noted somewhere else, everyone was expecting the acting nod to come for The Departed since it was a Best Picture front-runner (and ultimately winner) and garnered all those other nods...but instead he got it for Blood Diamond. Hmm, I wonder what's gonna happen this time given his Inception performance is just as great as Shutter Island
I think, as per usual, DiCaprio will be nominated but not win. He's not old enough, and he's also seen as a "pretty boy", or at least an object of female delight, and thus not 'suitable' for an Oscar.

And I was actually glad he got the nomination for Blood Diamond and not The Departed - I prefer the latter film overall, but BD was fan-freaking-tastic to the nth degree, and his performance was incredible! Most people overdo Afrikaner accents or Afrikaner's political positions, but he was real and totally raw. Simply wonderful.

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And I fully expect to Wall Pfister to be nominated for his fourth straight cinematography award...and he's clearly due to win, BUT we know that Terrence Malick's films always put forth extraordinary cinematography if nothing else so Pfister is gonna have some really stiff competition I would expect from Tree of Life's DP. I'd also like to see Eduardo Serra nominated for DH1, but we'll have to see on that...
We didn't see Delbonnel for HBP, and he's a far more admired cinematographer than Serra at this point in time. I am still, however, fuming at the academy for ignoring Serra's divine work in Blood Diamond. He should have won that year hands down.

But we need to remember Emmanuel Lubezki's reputation here. Not only is he working under Malick, but he's got several other Oscar noms under his belt, is also "due" a win, and is widely well-regarded by the community. I'd pick him over Pfister in this match. He's been in the game longer.

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At this point I don't believe I've heard of any films released yet that could make a strong showing come awards time...at least not for Best Picture, Best Director, etc. A couple films maybe like Iron-Man 2 and Shutter Island that could make a case for technical awards and perhaps Leo's performance will still be remembered next fall, but it came out awfully early in the year
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rastaban43
I really hesitate to go further than that. It's really just too early to talk about it in great depth, lol. It seems like the biggest Oscar contenders are the films that are released in November and December, so if anything, perhaps a late release date is a good standard for prediction. :P
I think that the Academy either forgets or is too harsh on films that are released earlier in the year. Most of the films seen in the bigger categories are, as Rastaban said, released in the final months of the year, for maximum impact on the voters in the Academy. It's a shame for good films that are released too early, but producers are usually savvy enough to know when to release later.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 1:54 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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I think, as per usual, DiCaprio will be nominated but not win. He's not old enough, and he's also seen as a "pretty boy", or at least an object of female delight, and thus not 'suitable' for an Oscar.
If we were talking say 10 years ago I'd agree with you, but this is no longer true. He's in his mid 30's now and has established himself as a serious acting force. I agree that if he gets nominated he probably won't win, but for other reasons...mainly being I expect some performance later in the year will standout more. There should be a lot of stiff competition from those actors who's names are in the OP.

Quote:
And I was actually glad he got the nomination for Blood Diamond and not The Departed - I prefer the latter film overall, but BD was fan-freaking-tastic to the nth degree, and his performance was incredible! Most people overdo Afrikaner accents or Afrikaner's political positions, but he was real and totally raw. Simply wonderful.
I agree with this actually. I prefer The Departed as well, but his performance in Blood Diamond was better.

Quote:
We didn't see Delbonnel for HBP, and he's a far more admired cinematographer than Serra at this point in time. I am still, however, fuming at the academy for ignoring Serra's divine work in Blood Diamond. He should have won that year hands down.

But we need to remember Emmanuel Lubezki's reputation here. Not only is he working under Malick, but he's got several other Oscar noms under his belt, is also "due" a win, and is widely well-regarded by the community. I'd pick him over Pfister in this match. He's been in the game longer.
Again, I agree.

I thought Blood Diamond looked amazing. But how/why is Delbonnel more admired then Serra? He has 3 Oscar noms to Serra's 2...but does that really make a difference? Oh, and I guess I didn't realize that Malick's DP hasn't won before. I was under the impression that every film of Malick's had won for cinematography but I guess Day of Heaven was the only winner. So actually now that I look at it more closely I guess you could say all 3 are "due" for a win, to different extents. If we go in order of previous nominations Lubezki would be the front-runner with 4, then Pfister with 3, and lastly Serra with 2. Hmm, what other DP's are involved this year that might make a showing?

EDIT: Oh, Roger Deakins (True Grit) Wow, talk about someone who's due...that dude has EIGHT previous nominations without a win!

Also, I thought the cinematography for Shutter Island was fantastic and the DP for that film has 2 wins and numerous other nominations so he obviously can't be left out of the discussion. I suspect he could receive another nom at least.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 2:32 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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If we were talking say 10 years ago I'd agree with you, but this is no longer true. He's in his mid 30's now and has established himself as a serious acting force. I agree that if he gets nominated he probably won't win, but for other reasons...mainly being I expect some performance later in the year will standout more. There should be a lot of stiff competition from those actors who's names are in the OP.
Yes, he's an acting force, but he's still got the burden. As does Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, George Clooney etc. The Academy just doesn't like people who are super fantastic. They like the Tom Hanks's and Morgan Freeman's of this world.

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Again, I agree.

I thought Blood Diamond looked amazing. But how/why is Delbonnel more admired then Serra? He has 3 Oscar noms to Serra's 2...but does that really make a difference? Oh, and I guess I didn't realize that Malick's DP hasn't won before. I was under the impression that every film of Malick's had won for cinematography but I guess Day of Heaven was the only winner. So actually now that I look at it more closely I guess you could say all 3 are "due" for a win, to different extents. If we go in order of previous nominations Lubezki would be the front-runner with 4, then Pfister with 3, and lastly Serra with 2. Hmm, what other DP's are involved this year that might make a showing?

EDIT: Oh, Roger Deakins (True Grit) Wow, talk about someone who's due...that dude has EIGHT previous nominations without a win!

Also, I thought the cinematography for Shutter Island was fantastic and the DP for that film has 2 wins and numerous other nominations so he obviously can't be left out of the discussion. I suspect he could receive another nom at least.
Delbonnel just is from all of his wonderful work with Jeunet. Remember, respect is not measured in Academy nominations. Delbonnel just has that respect because he's worked consistently with a very visual director a la Malick and is hence always mentioned when discussing Jeunet's work and the new era of French cinema. However, in comparison to people like Deakins (why the hell hasn't he got an Oscar yet? Maybe the Academy just feels guilty for giving Coen films so much praise), Delbonnel is still small fry, if only for his limited number of projects.

And I always love Richardson's work (it was him who did Shutter Island if my memory serves) - another nom for him would be great.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 3:20 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

Clooney got his oscar for Syriana. So althought he might have somewhat of a pretty boy persona for some people he has his moments. He also got a director and writing nod for Good night and good luck, which qualifies for me as being noticed.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 7:56 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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Originally Posted by moogirl View Post
Yes, he's an acting force, but he's still got the burden. As does Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, George Clooney etc. The Academy just doesn't like people who are super fantastic. They like the Tom Hanks's and Morgan Freeman's of this world.
Hmm, I suppose so.

You don't like Tom Hank's and Morgan Freeman though?! To me they would fall under the definition of "super fantastic". They are certainly 2 of my favorite actors and very deserving of all the recognition if you ask me. But I like Leo Depp, Pitt, and Clooney quite a lot too and it would be nice to see them win sometime soon. BTW, forgot to list it in the OP but Depp has a movie coming out called The Rum Diary.

Quote:
Delbonnel just is from all of his wonderful work with Jeunet. Remember, respect is not measured in Academy nominations. Delbonnel just has that respect because he's worked consistently with a very visual director a la Malick and is hence always mentioned when discussing Jeunet's work and the new era of French cinema. However, in comparison to people like Deakins (why the hell hasn't he got an Oscar yet? Maybe the Academy just feels guilty for giving Coen films so much praise), Delbonnel is still small fry, if only for his limited number of projects.

And I always love Richardson's work (it was him who did Shutter Island if my memory serves) - another nom for him would be great.
Ah, ok. See I don't much about either of them outside of their awards recognition so that's why I asked. On paper they seem somewhat equals but maybe Delbonnel is held in a lot higher regard. And yes, that's right...Robert Richardson worked on Shutter Island. His 2 wins were for JFK and The Aviator and other noms for Inglorious Basterds, Snow Falling on Ceders, Born on the Fourth of July, and Platoon.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 10:10 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

With ten nominations, despite the delay, like Gangs of New York, Shutter Island will likely garner more nominations than just on the technical side. Scorsese may not win a best Director nom again for this one (though had it came out last year, considering it would have been one of the best directed films, a nom would have been plausible and it still is this year, but Paramount still messed it's rightful chances up). Of course, we haven't seen Inception, but based off what we have seen, Leo's performance does not look as complex or textured as his in Shutter Island. He could get nominated for Inception instead (though this will likely cause a stink amongst bloggers seeing as his performance in Shutter Island is a favorite and pick for a deserved nom), like he did with Blood Diamond (also, Leo's performance is far better in The Departed... much more nuanced, anxious and fitting to the character).

I'm still sour of Aronofsky not getting nominated for The Wrestler. While The Dark Knight was my #1 film of '08, it's getting snubbed was almost forgivable next to The Wrestler's snub, especially given it's status at that time of being the second highest grossing film of all time. Aronofsky deserved a nom for Best Director, and the film should have been nominated for Best Picture and won over Slumdog Millionaire (of those nominees, Button deserved it the most, but The Wrestler deserved it over that had it been nominated). I don't want to get off track and getting into the history of oscar's, but I'm relating it to chances with this years Oscar run. This might be Aronofsky's year, the story is intriguing and sounds great, and it's got a stellar cast.

The Coen's will likely get another nomination as well as their film, and with their return to western/drama, it might get extra brownie points for No Country For Old Men.

It's too early to say who will be the noms though, as we're just now getting into the summer movie season and as for what's shaping up in the fall/winter movie season, we haven't really been teased with yet.


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Old May 21st, 2010, 10:31 pm
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Re: Oscars 2011

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With ten nominations, despite the delay, like Gangs of New York, Shutter Island will likely garner more nominations than just on the technical side. Scorsese may not win a best Director nom again for this one (though had it came out last year, considering it would have been one of the best directed films, a nom would have been plausible and it still is this year, but Paramount still messed it's rightful chances up). Of course, we haven't seen Inception, but based off what we have seen, Leo's performance does not look as complex or textured as his in Shutter Island. He could get nominated for Inception instead (though this will likely cause a stink amongst bloggers seeing as his performance in Shutter Island is a favorite and pick for a deserved nom), like he did with Blood Diamond (also, Leo's performance is far better in The Departed... much more nuanced, anxious and fitting to the character).
Hmm, you think so? I loved the film personally and certainly wouldn't complain if it was nominated for some of the bigger awards...but it seems like Shutter Island wasn't enough of a hit with critics and then on top of that it's early release date did not help it's chances.


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