Oscars 2013

[Lotoc_Sabbath]

Originally Posted by Wab

The best host in recent years was Hugh Jackman.

Gosh how good was he! I totally loved him, he should always host!

So to the oscars, here is my take on some categories this year. Before starting let me say this: 2012 was one of the best years in cinema history, there were some stinkers but trust me when I say this year's award season will be enormous, there were so many good movies out this year I can't actually belive it comparing it to the awful year 2011 was, 2012 seems heaven.


Best Actor category:
Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln
Joaquin Phoneix for The Master
Anthony Hopkins for Hitchcock
Denzel Washington for Flight

Contenders:
Martin Freeman for the Hobbit
Daniel Craig for Skyfall
Jamie Fox for Django Unchained
Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper for Silver Lignigs Playbook


Best Actress Category:
Jennifer Lawrence for The Hunger Games/Silver Linings Playbook
Hellen Mirren for Hitchcock
Meryl Streep for Hope Springs
Tilda Swinton for We Need to talk About Kevin
Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty


Best Supporting Actor:
Russel Crowe for Les miserabiles
Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Cristoph Waltz for Django Unchained
Leonardo Di Caprio for Django Unchained
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook

Possible Contenders:
Tom Hardy for The Dark Knight Rises
Ezra Miller for The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln


Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams for The Master
Judi Dench for Skyfall
Tilda Swinton for Moonrise Kingdom
Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Sally Field for Lincoln


Best Animated Movie
Wreck-it-Ralph
Rise of the Guardians
Brave
Paranorm
Pirates! A Band of Misfits


Best Original Screenplay:
Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master
Rian Johnson for Looper
Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingodm

Possible Contenders:
Martin McDonagh for Seven Psychopaths
Joss Whedon for Cabin in the Woods


Best Adapted Screenplay:
Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Chris Terrio for Argo
Matthew M. Quick for Silver Linings Playbook
Andrew Dominik for Killing them Softly


Best Director:
Steven Spilberg for Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
Ben Affleck for Argo
David 'o Russel for Silver Linings Playbook
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty

Possible Contenders:
Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master
Sam Mendes for Skyfall
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Lynne Ramsay for We Need to talk about Kevin
Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom


Best Sound:
Without a doubt it will go to the Dark Knight Rises (both categories)


Best SoundTrack:
Hans Zimmer for The Dark Knight Rises
Thomas Newman for Skyfall
Howard Shore for The Hobbit
John Williams for Lincoln
Alexandre Desplat for Moonrise Kingdom


Best Original Song:
No doubt it will go to Adele for Skyfall


Best Visual Effects:
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Life of Pi
The Hobbit


Best Makeup:
The Hobbit will win for sure


Best Art Direction:
The Hobbit
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Avengers
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom


Best Cinematography:
Lincoln
The Master
The Dark Knight Rises
Moonrise Kingdom
Les Miserables


Best Picture:
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Moonrise Kingdom

Possible Contenders:
The Master
Skyfall
We Need to talk about Kevin
The Hobbit


Well that is my take for now, let me know what you think on my opinions.

[yorkiedoodle]

Is it possible that We need to talk about Kevin will be in the list? it was released here in 2011 and was nominated for the BAFTA's in 2012.

[Lotoc_Sabbath]

Originally Posted by yorkiedoodle

Is it possible that We need to talk about Kevin will be in the list? it was released here in 2011 and was nominated for the BAFTA's in 2012.

It was released in 2011 in england, it was relesead in 2012 in the Usa, and for the academy purpouse, the date that counts is the american one.
I just threw that nomination in because it merits recognition and because Mark kermode marked it as the best movie of 2011. Anyway since the members of the academy are utterly stupid and will never recognize a movie which has come out in january it is very unlikely to happen.




EDIT:

Oscar shortlist for Visual Effects, Original Score and Best Animated Feature were just released:


VISUAL EFFECTS:
The Amazing Spider-Man
Cloud Atlas
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
John Carter
Life of Pi
Marvel's The Avengers
Prometheus
Skyfall
Snow White and the Huntsman


BEST ANIMATED FILM:

Brave
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
ParaNorman
Rise of the Guardians
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
The Rabbi's Cat
Wreck-It Ralph


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
After the Wizard
Alex Cross
The Amazing Spider-Man
Anna Karenina
Argo
Battleship
The Bay
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Being Flynn
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Big Miracle
Booker’s Place: A Mississippi Story
Brave
Brooklyn Castle
Chasing Ice
Chasing Mavericks
Chicken with Plums
himpanzee
Cloud Atlas
Compliance
Contraband
The Dark Knight Rises
Dark Shadows
Darling Companion
Deadfall
The Dictator
Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax
End of Watch
Ethel
Flight
For a Good Time, Call...
For Greater Glory: The True Story of Cristiada
Frankenweenie
Fun Size
Girl in Progress
The Grey
The Guilt Trip
Hidden Moon
Hitchcock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Hotel Transylvania
House at the End of the Street
The Hunger Games
Hyde Park on Hudson
Ice Age: Continental Drift
The Impossible
Jack Reacher
John Carter
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
Lawless
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Lola Versus
Looper
The Lucky One
LUV
The Man with the Iron Fists
Marvel’s The Avengers
The Master
Men in Black 3
Middle of Nowhere
Mirror Mirror
The Odd Life of Timothy Green
On the Road
The Pardon
Parental Guidance
People Like Us
The Possession
Prometheus
Promised Land
The Raid: Redemption
Red Tails
Rise of the Guardians
Ruby Sparks
Safe House
Safety Not Guaranteed
Saint Dracula
Savages
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World
The Sessions
Sinister
Skyfall
Smashed
Snow White and the Huntsman
Taken 2
Ted
Think Like a Man
This Means War
A Thousand Words
The Three Stooges
Trashed
Trouble with the Curve
21 Jump Street
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2
Until They Are Home
War of the Worlds The True Story
The Watch
West of Memphis
Where Do We Go Now?
Won’t Back Down
The Words
Wreck-It Ralph
Zero Dark Thirty

(not much of a shortlist, but that's that)



Who do you think will make the nominations? Btw check my guesses two posts behind

[Wab]

Nominations are out. Let the arguments begin.

Best motion picture of the year

* "Amour" Nominees to be determined
* "Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
* "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
* "Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
* "Les Misérables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
* "Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
* "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
* "Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
* "Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers

Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook"
* Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln"
* Hugh Jackman in "Les Misérables"
* Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
* Denzel Washington in "Flight"

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Alan Arkin in "Argo"
* Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook"
* Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
* Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln"
* Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"

Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
* Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook"
* Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
* Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
* Naomi Watts in "The Impossible"

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Amy Adams in "The Master"
* Sally Field in "Lincoln"
* Anne Hathaway in "Les Misérables"
* Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
* Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"

Best animated feature film of the year

* "Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
* "Frankenweenie" Tim Burton
* "ParaNorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
* "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord
* "Wreck-It Ralph" Rich Moore

Achievement in cinematography

* "Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
* "Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
* "Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda
* "Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
* "Skyfall" Roger Deakins

Achievement in costume design

* "Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran
* "Les Misérables" Paco Delgado
* "Lincoln" Joanna Johnston
* "Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
* "Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood

Achievement in directing

* "Amour" Michael Haneke
* "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
* "Life of Pi" Ang Lee
* "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
* "Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell

Best documentary feature

* "5 Broken Cameras" Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
* "The Gatekeepers" Nominees to be determined
* "How to Survive a Plague" Nominees to be determined
* "The Invisible War" Nominees to be determined
* "Searching for Sugar Man" Nominees to be determined

Best documentary short subject

* "Inocente" Sean Fine and Andrea Nix Fine
* "Kings Point" Sari Gilman and Jedd Wider
* "Mondays at Racine" Cynthia Wade and Robin Honan
* "Open Heart" Kief Davidson and Cori Shepherd Stern
* "Redemption" Jon Alpert and Matthew O'Neill

Achievement in film editing

* "Argo" William Goldenberg
* "Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
* "Lincoln" Michael Kahn
* "Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
* "Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg

Best foreign language film of the year

* "Amour" Austria
* "Kon-Tiki" Norway
* "No" Chile
* "A Royal Affair" Denmark
* "War Witch" Canada

Achievement in makeup and hairstyling

* "Hitchcock" Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
* "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
* "Les Misérables" Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

* "Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
* "Argo" Alexandre Desplat
* "Life of Pi" Mychael Danna
* "Lincoln" John Williams
* "Skyfall" Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

* "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice" Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
* "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted" Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
* "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi" Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
* "Skyfall" from "Skyfall" Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
* "Suddenly" from "Les Misérables" Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil

Achievement in production design

* "Anna Karenina" Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
* "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
* "Les Misérables" Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
* "Life of Pi" Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
* "Lincoln" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best animated short film

* "Adam and Dog" Minkyu Lee
* "Fresh Guacamole" PES
* "Head over Heels" Timothy Reckart and Fodhla Cronin O'Reilly
* "Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"" David Silverman
* "Paperman" John Kahrs

Best live action short film

* "Asad" Bryan Buckley and Mino Jarjoura
* "Buzkashi Boys" Sam French and Ariel Nasr
* "Curfew" Shawn Christensen
* "Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw)" Tom Van Avermaet and Ellen De Waele
* "Henry" Yan England

Achievement in sound editing

* "Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
* "Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
* "Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
* "Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
* "Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson

Achievement in sound mixing

* "Argo" John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
* "Les Misérables" Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
* "Life of Pi" Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
* "Lincoln" Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
* "Skyfall" Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson

Achievement in visual effects

* "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
* "Life of Pi" Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
* "Marvel's The Avengers" Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
* "Prometheus"
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
* "Snow White and the Huntsman" Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson

Adapted screenplay

* "Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
* "Beasts of the Southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
* "Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
* "Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
* "Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell

Original screenplay

* "Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
* "Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
* "Flight" Written by John Gatins
* "Moonrise Kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
* "Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal

http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/...#ixzz2HclqL8nN

Only a few predictions. Best actor will be a battle of the beards. I'd like to see Jacki Weaver or Helen Hunt for best supporting actress. The Hobbit will probably get makeup and hairstyling. Les Misérables for sound mixing if only the songs were recorded live rather than dubbed in later.

I also disagree with the article's claim that Marion Cottilard was snubbed for best actress. Although it shouldn't matter, foreign language films are almost never nominated in the big awards. (That's besides the fact that I don't believe in snubs. People's views differ.)

And for those who get het up about it, a fantasy film was nominated for best movie.

[IenjoyAcidPops]

Here were the surprises to me in those nominations:

-The absence of The Master in the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay categories - I know it didn't receive those nods at the Golden Globes or the Directors Guild or the Producers Guild, but it did receive a Best Picture nod at the Critics' Choice Awards and a Writers Guild nomination; I never counted it out, but apparently there wasn't quite as much love for it as I thought.

-No Best Actor nomination for John Hawkes - It was either going to be Hawkes for The Sessions or Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables, and I'm not that surprised that it was Jackman, but I did think it'd be Hawkes; I mean, he's playing a disabled character and Jackman isn't - come on.

-Christoph Waltz over Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained - It was going to be one of these two, but I kept thinking it'd be DiCaprio. I wonder if he'll end up one of those great actors who never gets his due from the Academy.

-Michael Haneke for Best Director - I've been hearing such love for Amour lately - or such amour for it, if you will - that I was sure it'd get some love if one or more of the major categories, probably Emmanuelle Riva and the screenplay. I didn't expect the Picture and Director nods, though; Haneke's was particularly surprising.

-Benh Zeitlin for Best Director - I thought there was a great chance that Beasts of the Southern Wild would be one of those to benefit from the larger BP race, but I didn't think I'd see Zeitlin among the nominated directors.

-No Kathryn Bigelow for Best Director - The biggest shocker this year was Kathryn Bigelow not being nominated for Best Director for Zero Dark Thirty. You do have to wonder if this has to do with the current controversy over the film's depiction of torture and whether it endorses it - which is ridiculous, but the Academy can be ridiculous sometimes.

-The Pirates! Band of Misfits nominated for Best Animated Feature, in the slot that I thought would be taken by The Secret World of Arrietty

-Two pleasant surprises: the nominations for the music in Skyfall. I guess I shouldn't have been surprised - people have been saying the theme was a lock and that the score also had a good shot for months - but with the possibility that the Academy may deem "Skyfall" not original enough to put up for Best Original Song, as it incorporates the classic "James Bond Theme," I assumed the Academy would be dumb and decide it was ineligible. I'm glad good sense and taste prevailed, and it's nice to see Thomas Newman's score recognized too.

-Less pleasant: The Dark Knight Rises being completely shut out. Look, I never expected or held my breath for a Best Picture nomination, but I figured it'd get something - Cinematography, Sound Editing, something! It's kind of unbelievable, but...actually, maybe not unbelievable. Weirdly, though, I didn't even notice this the first time I looked over the nominees. I sort of feel like I should be more frustrated or outraged by this, because I do think The Dark Knight Rises is a great film and deserving of being acknowledged as one...but I don't care about this anymore. I mean, I care inasmuch as I'm glad to see movies I enjoy being recognized, but I can't be too invested anymore; it's just too exhausting. I'm sure there are legions of lovers of TDKR talking about how they'll protest the Oscars now, I'm sure there are haters of it rejoicing at the snubbing of it. This year the Academy decided the one good blockbuster was Skyfall.

[Wab]

Originally Posted by IenjoyAcidPops

H-No Best Actor nomination for John Hawkes - It was either going to be Hawkes for The Sessions or Hugh Jackman for Les Misérables, and I'm not that surprised that it was Jackman, but I did think it'd be Hawkes; I mean, he's playing a disabled character and Jackman isn't - come on.

But he's playing a disabled character who has sex and that's something the wider community doesn't want to think about.

[yorkiedoodle]

i listened to the nominations live on Radio 5 - if Ann Hathaway had not been nominated for Les Mis then the feeling was she would have been nominated for the Dark Knight Rises...

They talked to a bloke from Aardman Animations ( they made Pirates..) and he hadn't been listening to it live - he didn't think they had a chance because they hadn't been nominated for a BAFTA!

i thought that Skyfall and the Dark Knight Rises might have received more recognition - when the Academy increased the number of films in the best picture category it was supposed to enable the inclusion of more 'blockbuster' films....... but I was very pleased to see that roger Deakins has been nominated for the cinematography for Skyfall - I do hope he wins.

[Lotoc_Sabbath]

Ok predictions time, I'm pretty sure on these ones:

Best Picture: Lincoln
Pest Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor: DD Lewis
Best Actress: Emmanuel Riva
Best Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Adapted Screemplay: Silver Linings Playbook
Animated Feature: Wreck it Ralph
Foreign Film: Amour
Animation Short Film: Paperman
Score: Skyfall
Song: Skyfall
Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Production Design: Lincoln
Cinematograhy: Skyfall
Make-up: The Hobbit
Costume Design: Lincoln
Editing: Argo
Visual Effects: Life of Pi

[IenjoyAcidPops]

In my post about the surprises in the nominations last month, I didn't even mention Ben Affleck's snub in the Best Director category. That was because I wasn't that surprised to not see his name there. Argo didn't seem like a Best Picture frontrunner at that point, Affleck didn't seem like a Best Director frontrunner at that point. When it came out, it did, then that buzz died down, but after the nominations came in, Affleck was regarded as the major snub (I thought Kathryn Bigelow was the major snub, but I was wrong), and he's won every major prize since, as has Argo. So here we are in the very strange and rare situation where the director of the frontrunner for Best Picture can't win themselves. The last time a film won Best Picture without its director even being nominated was Driving Miss Daisy - 23 years ago - directed by Bruce Beresford. That alone makes this a far more interesting year than usual, but there are a number of other categories that are difficult to predict.

BEST PICTURE

I thought Zero Dark Thirty would be more of a contender. I thought it'd come down to that vs. Lincoln. Then came the controversies surrounding Zero Dark Thirty, and buzz/hype around Silver Linings Playbook grew. I then thought it'd be that vs. Lincoln. And then Argo became the film to beat. At this point, Argo could possibly be beaten by either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook...but it won't be. Silver Linings Playbook's big advantage here is that it has an actor nominated in every acting category, and the actors' branch is the largest in the Academy. Even so...

WILL WIN: Argo - George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Ben Affleck



BEST DIRECTOR

Well, it won't be Affleck, because it can't be Affleck. Steven Spielberg is the most likely then, and as that film won't win Picture, this would be a sort of consolation prize for it. David O. Russell could win, but I think Lincoln is regarded as more of a directorial achievement than Silver Linings Playbook

WILL WIN: Steven Spielberg - Lincoln



BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis is the only one that matters. Having other nominees in this category is merely a formality.

WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln



BEST ACTRESS

It's Jessica Chastain (for Zero Dark Thirty) vs. Jennifer Lawrence for (Silver Linings Playbook). Chastain is the older and more experienced actress, but they both have one Oscar nomination in their past (Chastain last year for Best Supporting Actress for The Help, Lawrence two years ago for Best Actress for Winter's Bone), so previous experience is hard to take into account here. They both won Golden Globes for their respective films, because the Globes separate drama and comedy, so that's no help, plus the Golden Globes aren't the major predictor that some people think. Chastain has won a bunch of critics' prizes, but those are critics' prizes. Lawrence won the SAG award. Chastain would seem to have the showier role, one that almost demands an Oscar, but Lawrence's is supposedly the more emotional. It really is a tough call to make. Chastain is definitely deserving. I haven't seen Silver Linings; I'm not sure if that makes this easier or harder to call. There's talk that Emmanuelle Riva could pull off an upset for Amour, but I don't think so (and it's not an upset if you predict it). I think I have to go Lawrence.

WILL WIN: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is another difficult race. Everyone nominated has won an Oscar before - but neither Alan Arkin (nominated for Argo) nor Philip Seymour Hoffman (nominated for The Master will be adding a new one to their mantel. I could totally see Robert De Niro (for Silver Linings Playbook), Tommy Lee Jones (for Lincoln), or Christoph Waltz (for Django Unchained) walking away with this one. Waltz is less likely than the others, not least because he won in this category, for a Tarantino movie, just three years ago. The SAG award went to Jones. De Niro hasn't won any of the major awards, but this is such an acclaimed performance, and this is his first Oscar nomination since his Best Actor nod for Cape Fear in 1992. I've heard it's a performance of subtlety and nuance, whereas Jones has some of that but, more importantly, plenty of speechifying and scene-stealing.

WILL WIN: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway, a.k.a. the aspect everyone actually likes about Les Misérables. This is almost as surefire as Day-Lewis.

WILL WIN: Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I figure it's between Amour, Django Unchained, and Zero Dark Thirty. To say that Django's violence and frequent use of "the N word" may hold it back feels silly, but it may. Zero Dark Thirty has some unfortunate and ridiculous controversies attached to it, and the Academy did recognize the script for a taut, extensively researched war film from Mark Boal just three years ago, The Hurt Locker. There's no controversy or backlash around Amour, but would a film in another language win for its screenplay? There's such love for it now, I wouldn't be that surprised...but I don't know. Zero Dark Thirty did win the WGA award, and the knocks against it have been leveled against Kathryn Bigelow more than anyone. Django won the Golden Globe, but so what? Actually, this one's harder than Supporting Actor. I'm going Zero Dark Thirty.

WILL WIN: Zero Dark Thirty - Mark Boal



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Argo, Lincoln, or Silver Linings Playbook....Damn it, the screenplay categories are hard to nail down this year. That's fun, but it means that I probably shouldn't place any bets. Looking at the other awards doesn't make it easier; Silver Linings Playbook won the BAFTA, Lincoln won the Critics' Choice award, Argo won the WGA award. Actually, that should make it easier. It seems to me like Lincoln is a wiser, safer bet than Argo, but shouldn't I go with the film that won the award from the Writers Guild? Maybe I should, but I'm not.

WILL WIN: Lincoln - Tony Kushner



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This category has been really, really hard for me - not because it's hard to predict, but because I would love to see Frankenweenie win SO MUCH that I've had to bring myself down to the reality that it has so little chance. I try not to get my hopes up, but man, would it feel great if Frankenweenie won, because that's a really special film. I love Wreck-It Ralph too, though, and I like Brave. I thought maybe Wreck-It Ralph might alienate the plethora of ancients in the Academy, who might get lost in the references to video games they've never played or heard of, but now...Well, I won't be too bothered when it wins.

WILL WIN: Wreck-It Ralph - Rich Moore



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN: Searching for Sugar Man



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I'm going out on a limb and going with the film that was also nominated for Best Picture (and Best Director...and Best Original Screenplay...and Best Actress).

WILL WIN: Amour



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

It would have been cool to see it up for Best Picture, or to see Javier Bardem up for Best Supporting Actor, but hey, Skyfall is up for cinematography, and that's cool. And it's arguably the frontrunner. It's either Skyfall or Life of Pi. This is one of those times when I have to bet against something I love, though; Roger Deakins' cinematography on Skyfall was awesome, and if he does win, I'll love it (the first Oscar win for a Bond movie and a long-overdue win for Deakins? It'd be great!). Life of Pi really looks like a Best Cinematography winner to me, even though Skyfall did win the American Society of Cinematographers award, however.

WILL WIN: Life of Pi



BEST FILM EDITING

WILL WIN: Argo



BEST ART DIRECTION

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN: Anna Karenina



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

That makeup team on Les Mis sure did make those movie stars look ugly and poor.

Look, this category lost any credibility to me last year when The Iron Lady beat out Harry Potter and The Deathly Hallows: Part 2. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey should win, but it will not.

WILL WIN: Les Misérables



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

John Williams has a good shot for Lincoln, but I'm predicting Mychael Danna for Life of Pi.

WILL WIN: Life of Pi



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Everyone's saying that "Skyfall" is basically a lock, but I don't know, I wouldn't be shocked if "Suddenly" from Les Mis pulled an "upset." That said...

WILL WIN: "Skyfall" from Skyfall



BEST SOUND MIXING

That musical where the cast sang live on the set and that's what's in the movie.

WILL WIN: Les Misérables



BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN: Skyfall



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN: Life of Pi



And now for the random shots in the dark...

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

WILL WIN: "Asad"



BEST ANIMATED SHORT

I've actually seen two of these! I saw "Paperman" before Wreck-It Ralph, and I saw "The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare" after the most recent episode of...well, The Simpsons. My prediction is not my prediction because I've seen it, though.

WILL WIN: "Paperman"



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

WILL WIN: "Open Heart"

[Wab]

A refreshing change from the traditional carping: Sometimes Oscar gets it right!.

[IenjoyAcidPops]

I didn't do badly in my predictions, 16 out of 24, but that's not great either.

Here's the rundown:

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

I SAID: "Open Heart"

IT WAS: "Inocente"



BEST ANIMATED SHORT

I SAID: "Paperman"

IT WAS: "Paperman"



BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

I SAID: "Asad"

IT WAS: "Curfew"



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

I SAID: Life of Pi

IT WAS: Life of Pi



BEST SOUND EDITING

I SAID: Skyfall

IT WAS: Skyfall...and Zero Dark Thirty (A tie! I believe this is the first tie - in any category - since 1969, when Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand both won Best Actress, the former for The Lion in Winter, the latter for Funny Girl. I guess that's how you make the Sound Editing category interesting.)



BEST SOUND MIXING

I SAID: Les Misérables

IT WAS: Les Misérables



BEST ORIGINAL SONG

I SAID: "Skyfall" from Skyfall

IT WAS: "Skyfall" from Skyfall (There was no pretense that any of the other nominees had a chance, either - a portion of "Suddenly" was performed during the Les Mis medley, but the others were given the clip treatment. Here's the first Bond theme to win, and hooray!)



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

I SAID: Life of Pi

IT WAS: Life of Pi



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

I SAID: Les Misérables

IT WAS: Les Misérables



BEST COSTUME DESIGN

I SAID: Anna Karenina

IT WAS: Anna Karenina



BEST ART DIRECTION

I SAID: Anna Karenina

IT WAS: Lincoln



BEST FILM EDITING

I SAID: Argo

IT WAS: Argo



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

I SAID: Life of Pi

IT WAS: Life of Pi



BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I SAID: Amour

IT WAS: Amour



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

I SAID: Searching for Sugar Man

IT WAS: Searching for Sugar Man



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

I SAID: Wreck-It Ralph – Rich Moore

IT WAS: Brave – Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman (Well, I didn’t think Tim Burton would win for Frankenweenie, and he didn’t. I really liked Brave, but it was the third best animated feature of 2012, not the best. Of course, it’s all subjective, but this was one of those rare years in which the best animated feature was not made by Pixar.)



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

I SAID: Lincoln – Tony Kushner

IT WAS: Argo – Chris Terrio



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I SAID: Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal

IT WAS: Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino (DJANGO!!! This was my favorite moment of the night, the happiest I was during the show. I knew it was a contender, I said it was a contender, but it felt like it was between Zero Dark Thirty and Amour. Nothing against Zero Dark Thirty, it’s terrific, but I’m so glad I was wrong and it was Django.)



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I SAID: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables

IT WAS: Anne Hathaway – Les Misérables



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

I SAID: Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln

IT WAS: Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained (I underestimated Django. Again, I knew it was a contender here, I knew Waltz had more of a chance than Hoffman or Arkin, but I thought it had come down to Jones or De Niro. Waltz certainly doesn’t have as many clip-ready moments as Jones. But again, I was really glad I was wrong. It’s a brilliant performance, and very deserving.)



BEST ACTRESS

I SAID: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

IT WAS; Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook (I wasn’t interested in seeing Silver Linings Playbook when it opened, but I am now, even though I don’t think it looks great. I wish Chastain had won, though, because she’s so damn good in Zero Dark Thirty.)



BEST ACTOR

I SAID: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln

IT WAS: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln



BEST DIRECTOR

I SAID: Steven Spielberg – Lincoln

IT WAS: Ang Lee – Life of Pi (Biggest surprise of the night. I did not think there was enough love for Life of Pi to carry Lee to a win, but here you go. I thought if it wasn’t Spielberg, it’d be Russell.)



BEST PICTURE

I SAID: Argo – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Ben Affleck

IT WAS: Argo – George Clooney, Grant Heslov, and Ben Affleck



As for the show…

-I wasn’t sure how Seth MacFarlane would do, but I think he did a good job. The opening was very funny (I answered my initial, “Why is Shatner here?” with a clear, “Why not?”), and he actually made me laugh out loud several times – first with his first line, something like, “And the quest to make Tommy Lee Jones laugh begins now.” (Jones actually chuckled at that!) My two biggest laughs were his line about the mission Argo depicts being so top secret that the director of the film was unknown to the Academy, and, the one that no one in the crowd seemed to notice but I certainly did, the reference to Argo being an “entertaining film, but despite that, it was nominated for Best Picture.” MacFarlane always had a smile on his face delivering his own material, which I’m sure annoyed some people, but I didn’t think he lapsed into too much smugness or made it about himself too much, and I was kind of afraid he would. He was a solid host.

-This was a bad year for the people who hate music at the Oscars – the, “This is the Oscars, not the Grammys!” people. I was fine with it, and happy to not have to sit through a Cirque du Soleil performance.

Dame Shirley Bassey! Now, I don’t like the stage version of “Goldfinger” as much as the one that’s in the film, but this was really cool. The performance was a little rocky at first, but she probably hasn’t sung the song in a long time. She turned it around, though, and what was really impressive was not that she could hit that last note, but that she could still kill that last note.

The performances from the best (or so Travolta said) movie musicals of the last decade were fine, but none of them really worked for me as well as they should have. It would have been nice if the very best movie musical of the last decade, Sweeney Todd, had been represented, but oh well.

Adele was great, “Skyfall” is a great song, but the music was drowning her out. It’s not her fault, it’s not the song’s fault, it was the orchestra’s fault.

That orchestra also used the Jaws theme to play someone off early on, and man, was that a dick move. People get played off all the time – they even tried (and failed) to play Tarantino off – but the way it was done that time felt particularly harsh.

Barbra Streisand wasn’t drowned out when she performed “The Way We Were” after the In Memoriam montage, though. It’s a good thing, too, because if she had been drowned out, she’d have been impossible to hear. It wasn’t such a strong performance, and the way she made the moment all about her and her relationship with the late great Marvin Hamlisch felt distasteful.

I like Kristin Chenoweth, I like that they did something different by doing a song to the losers over the end credits, and it was pretty funny. I was probably the only one who sat through it.

-There was a refreshing lack of montages for the sake of montages. The only one I can remember is the Bond tribute, and that was well done. I know there are some people disappointed that the rumored reunion of every actor who’s played Bond didn’t happen, but I didn’t think there was any way they’d get Connery for that, and “every Bond minus Connery” would have been disappointing anyway.

-The reunion of The Avengers made for a funny bit, but, fanboy that I am, I was disappointed that Chris Hemsworth and Scarlett Johansson weren’t there – just because it meant that not all of the Avengers were there. It was kind of awkward to have them presenting Best Visual Effects – the only category in which The Avengers was nominated – to Life of Pi, even though Life of Pi was a lock anyway.

-That commercial with Tim Burton in it was funny, but I couldn’t stop thinking, “I like this, it’s funny, but I’d rather have seen Tim Burton in the show itself, receiving an Oscar for his fantastic movie.”

-They just had to have Dan Radcliffe and Kristen Stewart present together, huh? Sure, let’s keep linking Harry Potter and Twilight, even though they’re different in many, many more ways than they’re alike. And hey, Kristen Stewart? Hi, how are you? Because you look awkward and/or miserable all the time. You’re a movie star! I know this is your thing, but it’s not cute. Act like you’ve been there, and act like you wanna be there again.

-It was a pretty good year speech-wise, with Chris Terrio, Jennifer Lawrence, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Ben Affleck giving particularly nice ones. It’s unfortunate that Lawrence tripped up the stairs on her way to accept her Oscar, but charming too, and she even wished Emmanuelle Riva a happy birthday, which was a really classy move. Affleck turned his speech around after a weird moment when he talked about his marriage being hard work (I mean, relationships are that, but dude, it’s a victory speech, now is not the time). Tarantino turned his around, too, after what was coming off as arrogant (‘I’m here because I hired great actors – damn it, I’m good at casting!’); he pretty much always comes off as a bit arrogant, though, and that’s only okay because his work is great enough to compensate/justify that.

I thought it was a good show – not a great show, but a good show. I’m sure that 99% of people who watched have already called it the worst Oscars ever. Because that’s what happens every year.

[yorkiedoodle]

I was SO glad to see Amour recognised - is a wonderful film...

[Pox Voldius]

Originally Posted by IenjoyAcidPops

That orchestra also used the Jaws theme to play someone off early on, and man, was that a dick move. People get played off all the time – they even tried (and failed) to play Tarantino off – but the way it was done that time felt particularly harsh.

[...]

-The reunion of The Avengers made for a funny bit, but, fanboy that I am, I was disappointed that Chris Hemsworth and Scarlett Johansson weren’t there – just because it meant that not all of the Avengers were there. It was kind of awkward to have them presenting Best Visual Effects – the only category in which The Avengers was nominated – to Life of Pi, even though Life of Pi was a lock anyway.

That's not even the half of it.

One of the people that got drowned out by the Jaws theme was Bill Westenhofer, the VFX Supervisor from Rhythm & Hues -- as he was about to speak out about the problems facing the VFX community and the fact that Rhythm & Hues has recently had to file for bankruptcy & lay off over 200 people without pay, despite their Oscar-winning work (they were responsible for about 80%+ of the tiger shots in Life of Pi -- and all Ang Lee had to say about them is that he'd like them to be cheaper). There were hundreds of VFX artists & friends protesting outside the Academy Awards, but you wouldn't know it from the coverage.

'Magicians' Not 'Technicians'
VFX Company Rhythm & Hues Protested Last Night's Oscar Ceremony
The visual effects community sees red in the wake of Oscar protest and on-air snub

[HedwigOwl]

Originally Posted by yorkiedoodle

As for the show…

-I wasn’t sure how Seth MacFarlane would do, but I think he did a good job.

I wouldn't say good, because there were too many flat and/or uncomfortable moments. I think the last newspaper headline from Capt. Kirk was more accurate -- "mediocre host".

[Pox Voldius]

Originally Posted by HedwigOwl

I wouldn't say good, because there were too many flat and/or uncomfortable moments.

Uncomfortable moments and inappropriate/disrespectful jokes that included things I would have to go over to the USPD to discuss.

[Moriath]

Originally Posted by Pox Voldius

That's not even the half of it.

One of the people that got drowned out by the Jaws theme was Bill Westenhofer, the VFX Supervisor from Rhythm & Hues -- as he was about to speak out about the problems facing the VFX community and the fact that Rhythm & Hues has recently had to file for bankruptcy & lay off over 200 people without pay, despite their Oscar-winning work (they were responsible for about 80%+ of the tiger shots in Life of Pi -- and all Ang Lee had to say about them is that he'd like them to be cheaper). There were hundreds of VFX artists & friends protesting outside the Academy Awards, but you wouldn't know it from the coverage.

'Magicians' Not 'Technicians'
VFX Company Rhythm & Hues Protested Last Night's Oscar Ceremony
The visual effects community sees red in the wake of Oscar protest and on-air snub

Wow, that is depressing. However, I'm not very surprised. Hollywood is all about appearances after all.

[Verena]

I didn't follow the Academy awards , but today on the radio I heard that Adele won an Oscar with the song Skyfall... I'm glad because I love that song and I must say that I really like Adele.

[Sereena]

Originally Posted by IenjoyAcidPops

BEST ACTRESS

I SAID: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook

IT WAS; Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook (I wasn’t interested in seeing Silver Linings Playbook when it opened, but I am now, even though I don’t think it looks great. I wish Chastain had won, though, because she’s so damn good in Zero Dark Thirty.)

Yeah, I don't know but for me, while Lawrence is undeniably a good actress, her performance in this particular movie didn't deserve an Oscar. I don't think the role was that difficult to play, she was mostly just screaming and throwing a fit all the time, and I thought Bradley Cooper deserved the Oscar if one of them had to get it. Really, I think it was just the whole hype around Lawrence that got her the award.