HP Box Office Derby: Our Final "Stand" Begins NOW!

[cgold]

Based on the positive reviews I think HBP may do better than I previously expected. I'm going to change my estimate to $315m. I'll leave the international as is.

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by cgold

Based on the positive reviews I think HBP may do better than I previously expected. I'm going to change my estimate to $315m. I'll leave the international as is.

I will do. However, remember how little effect positive reviews of PoA had, and how little effect negative reviews are having on ROTFL. There is a known correlation between critical reviews and per theater sales for "originals," but it completely falls apart for sequels. The reviewer that people trust most is themselves, and what Ebert/Mitchell/etc. matters much less when one has an opinion based on a prior film. Those 10M people who never returned after Stone/Chamber were not swayed by the reviews for PoA or GoF: it would be surprising if reviews for HBP did the trick!

(The total failure of the critics to stop people from funding Michael Bay's assault on our cinematic senses is why I'm keeping this open even after the reviews have started to come out.)

Still, I'll change your tally unless you (re)direct me otherwise!


Here is the list as it now stands:

Poster..........N. America....International*
dchristen03.......$360M.........$170M
MasterOfDeath.....$340M.........$640M
Sahara............$333M.........$666M
Phrozenone........$331M.........$620M
ArryGrotter.......$330M.........$610M
Sacred_Memory.....$324M.........$605M
FleurDeLaPointe...$320M.........$655M
lcbaseball........$320M.........$655M
Peverell_bro.......$315.........$635M
cgold.............$315M.........$600M
theprince18.......$310M.........$640M
Atreides..........$307M.........$643M
Harry_Potter713 ..$307M.........$585M
ally_xx...........$305M.........$620M
Wimsey............$305M.........$600M
boushh............$302M.........$643M
Sesquipedalian....$300M.........$650M
LordThingy........$300M.........$618M
Klio..............$300M.........$620M
SolarHeart........$300M.........$610M
KlausBaudelaire...$300M.........$550M
Hermaryne.........$295M.........$615M
JustAnIllusion....$295M.........$610M
mrfutterman.......$290M.........$620M
yoshi.............$285M.........$650M
phoenix88.........$275M.........$610M
FemmeCerebus......$215M.........$320M

*: "International" = countries outside of N. America. The sum of these two numbers is the worldwide prediction. (For example, I am predicting $905M worldwide.)

[lcbaseball22]

Originally Posted by theprince18

Oh by the way are you serious about T2 being a horrible film? Because I heard from some people that T2 was awesome. (Not that I want to watch it or anything like that)

I def think Wimsey is over-exaggerating. It was pretty awesome...for what it is. 8 out of 10. Not quite as good as the first but still a great movie. It was a slight case of more is not always better, sensory overload at times I think Wimsey is simply ragging on it cause he didn't like or see the first film to begin with. I must say the first film blew me away. I was pleasantly surprised it was more than simply robots beating the hell out of each other as I'd expected. A film that appealed to the masses and not just the fanboys. (I never was or am such)

Besides, it's got Megan Fox...so it can't be THAT horrible

BTW, I wish to drop my International figure down to $640 mil (currently at $655 mil)

I think you guys are probably right about the dollar value in other countries right now having an effect there, something I failed to think of as a factor when I made my initial prediction. I think HBP will beat out Transformers worldwide but not necessarily domestically...we'll see

[cgold]

No, I know that critics can't sell the movie but I think if it's as good as critics say then more fans who were always going to watch the movie at least once will return and spread the good reviews to others. I hated OOTP and only watched it once and certainly discouraged anyone from seeing it. My favourite, PoA , I watched over and over again and carried my family to watch. I'm hoping that if it's really good, they will get a lot of repeat viewers and positive word of mouth and will sustain better at the box office.

Cheers

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by cgold

No, I know that critics can't sell the movie but I think if it's as good as critics say then more fans who were always going to watch the movie at least once will return and spread the good reviews to others.

Good word from fans certainly does not hurt. However, bad word from fans also does not hurt. We saw that with SpiderMan & Lord of the Rings: fans tried to organize boycotts and all they got in return was laughed at in Jay Leno monologues.

"Fan weekend" showed just how little help fans are for the box office, too. For those that do not remember, that was Star Wars fans on multiple groups like this one organizing multiple (re)viewings of Phantom Menace after Austin Powers 2 knocked PM out of the top spot. With the millions and millions of Star Wars fanatics, surely they could double PM's weekend tally and put it back at #1.

Instead, PM had its biggest proportional drop of its first 5 weekends, and dropped to #4: despite the fact that "everyone I know" saw the film multiple times according to all the SW fans!

Originally Posted by cgold

. I'm hoping that if it's really good, they will get a lot of repeat viewers and positive word of mouth and will sustain better at the box office.

It could get repeat viewers, and that obviously is desirable. However, HP films do not seem to get high repeat viewership. One diagnostic trait of films that have high repeat viewership is a long half-life, i.e., the number of days it takes to sell half the tickets. For example, New Line's audience surveys suggested that nearly 10% of the ticket sales for Return of the King were to repeat viewers. That was considered a very high proportion.

King took 10 days to sell half of its tickets. HP half-lives are much shorter:

PSS: 9 days
CoS: 9 days
PoA: 8 days
GoF: 7 days
OoP: 6 days

As I noted in prior posts, this trend is shared with every other blockbuster series of the last 10+ years: there is no sequel with a longer half-life than its predecessor. So, the HP films are not doing anything unusual. However, when we compare it to the half-lives of films with some documentation of high repeat viewership (Rings, Narnia), we see much longer tails:

FotR: 13 days
tTTw: 11 days
RotK: 10 days
LW&W: 16 days

So, HP films just do not look like high repeat movies. Now, does this mean that HBP cannot change this? No, of course not. However, no blockbuster sequel this decade has yet had a longer half-life than its predecessors, even when it sells more tickets. This suggests that repeat viewing is a property of the series rather than of the individual films within that series.

As a rule, I never bet on firsts: but, then one with my icon wouldn't, would he.....

[CandyCane23049]

I have to find the link but on Hollywood reporter.com, they say HBP tickets are out selling ROTF.

http://movies.yahoo.com/news/movies....Qthult60dfVXcA

It goes to the page but the article doesn't come right up. Just go to the right hand side of the page and you will find two Harry Potter stories.

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by CandyCane23049

I have to find the link but on Hollywood reporter.com, they say HBP tickets are out selling ROTF. .

Yes. However, it does not provide any information about the number of tickets being sold, and that is what is important. That HBP would outsell other films is hardly surprising: there are no other films coming out, and as a sequel with a fanbase, it will have a high degree of anticipation.

The fanbase is particularly important: they note that 85% of the 3000 respondants to their poll had read all of the books. However, we know that far short of 85% of the audience reads all of the books: the film will sell more tickets in one week in N. America alone than DH sold worldwide in one year! Sony polls have routinely showed the opening weekend audiences to be around 50% book readers, which basically computes to the opening week book sales of the last couple of HP's.

They do note that HBP's Fandango sales are outdoing Order's at the same time, but this again falls into the pattern: ever since CoS, each HP film has sold more tickets in its first week than the prior film.


We now are getting some inkling of ticket sales, and as they are showing that one set of concerns (poor economy and loss of interest in Harry Potter after the book series ended) are not relevant. So, I'd like to close the predictions TOMORROW and freeze everyone's predictions where they are.

EDIT: T2 is up to $305M, which is what I predicted for its total. So, if NOBODY else goes to see it, then I'm fine!

Seriously, I did have a nasty suspicion that this would do the sequel "bump" of Pirates 2 & Shrek 2, but my faith in humans actually being smarter than chimps got the better of me. (OK, I apologize: chimps would NOT be seeing this film.... ) It is interesting that these big "bumps" seem to happen between originals & first sequels. I'm betting that T3 will see a huge drop relative to how T2 will finish.

This isn't too relevant to HBP, save that hopes people might have had for HBP outgrossing T2 are pretty slim at this point.

[Atreides]

Well then, might as well throw in my last-minute 5 cents... $307M domestic, $950M international. Gut instincts based on the climate.

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by Atreides

Well then, might as well throw in my last-minute 5 cents... $307M domestic, $950M international. Gut instincts based on the climate.

Hey Atreides: long time, no see. I take it that your international is worldwide, not Hollywood International?

[lcbaseball22]

You're being extremely harsh on T2, it's not THAT bad...at the very least it has Megan Fox in it (voted world's sexiest woman in 2008 and runner up in 2009...by FHM, voted on by 10 million men) You should at least give the first a try, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised

The box office as a whole has seen increased business once again...for the last 2 weeks:

With such a massive movie debuting, overall weekend business surged past $200 million, which was up eight percent from the same weekend last year and was a new high for a June weekend.

With Public Enemies debuting solidly in third, business as a whole was up a tick from the same weekend last year, when Hancock was in charge.

It'll be interesting to see if this continues through Half-Blood Prince's run. That's cool that online ticket sales are outpacing T2

[ArryGrotter]

Originally Posted by lcbaseball22

You're being extremely harsh on T2, it's not THAT bad...at the very least it has Megan Fox in it (voted world's sexiest woman in 2008 and runner up in 2009...by FHM, voted on by 10 million men) You should at least give the first a try, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised

This is off-topic, but I have to say it: Eye-candy does not make a good film

[JustAnIllusion]

Originally Posted by lcbaseball22

You're being extremely harsh on T2, it's not THAT bad...at the very least it has Megan Fox in it (voted world's sexiest woman in 2008 and runner up in 2009...by FHM, voted on by 10 million men) You should at least give the first a try, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised

IMHO, Megan Fox is a terrible actress. Her attractiveness does not a good movie make. Shia is a cute guy, but I still think the second Transformers was ridiculously bad.


Anyway, Wimsey, can I change my guesstimate for domestic to 295 mil, please? Thank you!

[lcbaseball22]

Originally Posted by ArryGrotter

This is off-topic, but I have to say it: Eye-candy does not make a good film

You know what they say- "sex sells"

Look at everyone who views NSFW material...obviously they find it appealing/entertaining. Whether it's "good" though is a different case.

Anyways, it was kinda a joke Though there ARE those (moreso with girls though I find) that will see a film JUST because it has an attractive actror/actress in it (look no further than Twilight) This probably won't be true of HBP, but there is more sex appeal this time.

And of course it's not like that is all the 2 and a half hours has to offer. Wasn't true with Transformers and won't be with HBP either.

Originally Posted by JustAnIllusion

Anyway, Wimsey, can I change my guesstimate for domestic to 295 mil, please? Thank you!

Probably not, considering I've requested 4 times now to drop my international figure to $640 mil and it still hasn't changed

[Atreides]

Originally Posted by Wimsey

Hey Atreides: long time, no see. I take it that your international is worldwide, not Hollywood International?

Greetings, Wimsey! I've been reading threads forever, but for one reason or another, I've resisted posting. Still following these adaptations quite closely, though!

Yes, indeed, worldwide

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by JustAnIllusion

IMHO, Megan Fox is a terrible actress. Her attractiveness does not a good movie make.

I understand that you can see still more of her in other films which much lower box offices, so clearly the visual appeal of this perennial Oscar snub carries only so much box office pull.

Oh, and "done."

Originally Posted by Atreides

Greetings, Wimsey! I've been reading threads forever, but for one reason or another, I've resisted posting. Still following these adaptations quite closely, though!

Well, good to read you again. Catch you again in 18 months, then?

[Peverell_bro]

$315 million domestic, $950 worldwide.

[theprince18]

ROTFL made almost $5 million yesterday, bringing it to a total of $310 million through 15 days and lost 55% from one week ago. It is looking very likely that ROTFL is going to gross the most money domestically in the box office this year, though HBP could give ROTFL a run for its money, but will come up short.

[SnakeSinister]

I remember we did this for the book too so I guess this is a good idea. I would be upset if I saw a spoiler by accident like I did with the book. Dumbledore's fate was ruined for me in a magazine before I read HBP.

[Wimsey]

Originally Posted by SnakeSinister

I remember we did this for the book too so I guess this is a good idea. I would be upset if I saw a spoiler by accident like I did with the book. Dumbledore's fate was ruined for me in a magazine before I read HBP.

I'm rumbled: I actually was going to reveal the final total tomorrow and ruin everybody's fun. Sigh. Well, the Doctor gave the the keys to the TARDIS for 24 hours, so I'll do something else....

[FemmeCerebus]

Alright, I'm starting to feel more enthusiastic.

$215 US + $320 world = $535M

Ohhh just got it in under the wire.

What is BOM?

I'm liking the main stream press coverage they are getting. I don't know if it will be a huge bump (although I'm going first night midnight) or a slow "must get to that this summer".

I think it's a mom favorite. Whereas Transformers was an 8 year old boy thing. I re-watched Pearl Harbor and it wasn't as bad the second time as originally.