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#441
July 10th, 2009, 6:11 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
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 . The international box office has made between 550-650 million in every film so I'm very much doubting that the international community will ignore HBP.BOM means Box Office Mojo, which is a website that predicts, reports, and records box office for films, which is how I obtained the ROTFL box office numbers from yesterday. The media attention may give HBP a little bump, but I don't expect that much a bump that will put it into the territory of T2. However everyone will want to see it right away, not exactly the "must get to that this summer" attitude. Anyway what I am saying is that the media will not have that much of an effect on HBP's box office numbers with all this advertising, interviews, and other forms of publicity. This probably won't be a mom's movie as it will have quite a bit of action, though more spread out throughout. As stated many times here, the average age of viewers of the Harry Potter movies since POA has been 18, so the obvious target for these films are teens/younger adults. You may see a few more moms with their families watch HBP, I don't really call it a "mom's movie." Unless mothers of course like the Harry Potter series. And Transformers isn't exactly an 8 year old boy's movie either. There is quite a bit of action, which suits older audiences and wouldn't be so good for an 8 year old. Oh and by the way I think Wimsey extended the predictions another day, so you have another day if you want to change your mind again. Wimsey, I would like to change my domestic prediction to $310 million and my international prediction to $640 million for a total of $950 million worldwide.
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Part 1 of the Hallows is here!! "Help will always be given at Hogwarts to those who ask for it"-Albus Dumbledore "You may not like him Minister, but you can't deny. Dumbledore's got style." "Your blood is much more precious than mine"-Albus Dumbledore "I must be the one to kill Harry Potter."-Lord Voldemort |
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#442
July 10th, 2009, 6:13 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
This is probably going to sound like a really stupid question, but when are you going to post the 'winner'? Or, whoever guessed the closest?
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It All Ends 15.7.2011
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#443
July 10th, 2009, 5:00 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
EDIT: HBP is doing over 60% of MovieTickets.com as well as at Fandango. That is a higher proportion than T2 was doing: however, it might not be a higher number: to use an extreme comparison, the numerator in 6/10 is less than that in 5555/10000, but it is the numerator that is important. (Again, this is NOT to imply that I think that HBP has sold only 6 tickets at MovieTickets: it is to imply that I have no idea how many that they have sold, or how that number compares to ROTFL).
femme: for movies to sell over 40M tickets, they have to be more than 8-year old or mom's favorites: they have to cut across demographics. T2:ROTFL's biggest sales demographic was, shockingly, the ever coveted 16-25 and 26-25 year old demos. Of course, those are the biggest ticket buying blocks in general, and an action-packed cinematic spectacular always has the potential to play well to that demographic, even if it tells no story and muddles any semblance of a plot. It's all in the (cinematic) narrative, baby!  So, if HBP is to succeed, then it will do what the prior films have done: sell a ton of tickets to high school - grad school aged folks, as well as tickets to the 35+ plus and "tweens" on down. ally_xx: I will periodically repost the list, using a color-coding scheme to show people who have underbid and (probably) overbid. We'll get a good idea of what the final will be after one week: anyone who has bet on HBP getting twice what it has by 21 July is going to be out. tp18: as you did squeeze in under the deadline, then I'll change your prediction! You are correct that that the initial reviews are good. The sample size is small, but so far HBP is in the same territory as PoA and GoF (21 of 22 positive, averaging 7.4 of 10 "stars": PoA had 88% positive and averaged 7.8 of 10 stars of whereas GoF had 89% positive and averaged 7.5 of 10 stars). However, we saw with PoA that a big bump in critical acclaim does not produce a big bump in box office: at least not until the next film. (The sample is too small to judge at this point: we cannot yet reject the idea that HBP is an 82% popular movie that has just had a lucky streak over 22 reviews; also, the distribution of "stars" does not yet deviate significantly from the first two films, given either a t-test or a more appropriate nonparametric analog such as a Mann-Whitney test; however, it still is most likely that HBP will be up with PoA & GoF in the critics eyes.) I also agree with you entirely that the media attention will not give it much of a bump. For every article about this Prince, there has been multiple articles about the deceased King of Pop. Jackson's death has really stolen the media spotlight away from anything else in the entertainment industry. However, I doubt that will matter: it did not stop people from returning to the theaters to see T2, and it will not stop people from returning to the theaters to see HBP. BoM will have its weekly "predict the box offices" for the top 10 films next weekend. It's member's only. The Numbers has its own game, restricted to just the weekend. As they note, this does get trickier as a "non-opening" first weekend plays out a lot differently than an opening first weekend. Here is, I think, the final set of predictions. Thanks for playing, and we'll do it again in 18 months. However, please continue to check in: I'll post not just weekly tallies, but also how ticket sales (in estimated numbers of tickets) compare among the 6 HP films after X weeks of sales. (Because of the offset in release dates, it no longer makes sense to compare day-by-day). I will try to also post day-by-day comparisons for HBP & OotP: however, as I start teaching soon, this might bet delayed. Poster..........N. America....International* *: "International" = countries outside of N. America. The sum of these two numbers is the worldwide prediction. (For example, I am predicting $905M worldwide.)
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My 5 cents on cinematic presentation of the Deathly Hallows story..... (It doubles for The Hobbit, too!) “If in the first act you have hung a pistol on the wall, then in the following one it should be fired. Otherwise don't put it there.” - A. P. Chekhov, Gurlyand's Reminiscences, and who knew why the Dog was long before the Shack!  Last edited by Wimsey; July 11th, 2009 at 8:29 pm. |
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#444
July 10th, 2009, 5:17 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
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Maybe I underestimated how much HP's ongoing appeal despite the lack of media attention! It'll be interesting to see how it does. I hope it does really well!!! |
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#445
July 10th, 2009, 7:45 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
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That being written, I am sure that HBP is selling similar numbers as ROTFL, at least in terms of (say) 100's of thousands of tickets. We should expect HBP to plant ~7M seats in the theater on the first day in N. America alone. Quote:
The big problem is one that WB could not foresee: Michael Jackson dying, and the media circus surrounding that. That has so dominated the entertainment news that the usual articles about the premieres and interviews with the actors have been a small fraction of the total entertainment news. The question of, say, why Diana Ross did not attend Jacko's funeral, or whether the funeral was a bigger media circus than Diana's is the primary topic for the entertainment news. Even the movie news has had a lot of coverage of Jacko's involvement with films over the years. Quote:
Like Transformers or any other highly successful movie series, Harry Potter has a ready made audience from the prior films. One of the beauties of sequels (to Hollywood) is how little advertising they need. Again, RotK was the classic example: when people asked why New Line spent so little on advanced advertising, their reply was that they'd already had two $300M+ films advertising King, and that was all they needed. They were right. Prince will sell on the merits of Order and Goblet. WB timed the publicity properly: people will have forgotten anything from more than a couple of weeks ago already, anyway. EDIT: I promised this a while ago. Sorry for the delay! Film.....HalfLife
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My 5 cents on cinematic presentation of the Deathly Hallows story..... (It doubles for The Hobbit, too!) “If in the first act you have hung a pistol on the wall, then in the following one it should be fired. Otherwise don't put it there.” - A. P. Chekhov, Gurlyand's Reminiscences, and who knew why the Dog was long before the Shack! Last edited by Wimsey; July 11th, 2009 at 4:16 am. |
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#446
July 11th, 2009, 7:33 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
I refuse to believe that Transformers will do better than HBP but it's now at $322m with the potential to reach $400m. It's really, really, really difficult for me to imagine HBP reaching the $400m mark. I feel conflicted. The best HP has ever done is about $311m and based on Wimsey's view of how the last movie tells how the next movie will do (and which I agree), I feel even less about the chances after OOTP. It was the worst reviewed HP movie (although it's 77% on rottentomatoes which is still quite good) and it's the HP movie I personally hated the most. However, I've watched Transformers and I liked it but I didn't love it and even without seeing HBP, I refuse to believe Transformers will do better so I'm changing my score again, hopefully for the last time. I am going to place my bet based on Transformers. I think HBP will make $1m more than whatever Transformers domestic total is. It probably won't happen but we'll see. I'll still leave the international as is for now.
Domestic: T2+$1m ETA: Ooops, didn't realize that predictions were done. Oh well.  Cheers.
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 Cosmopolis ~  ~ Bel Ami ~ ~ Water for Elephants ~ ~ Remember MeEd Sheeran - Lego House with Rupert Grint Last edited by cgold; July 11th, 2009 at 7:39 pm. |
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#447
July 11th, 2009, 8:28 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
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Second, although you are correct that the critics were not fond of Order, critical reviews themselves do not do a great job of predicting sequel box offices. For example, critics were not thrilled with Transformers or Pirates of the Caribbean, either: but their sequels sold even more tickets than they did. Once you factor out the correlation between critical reviews and audience reaction, sequel success is quite random with respect to how the critics treat either film. What matters is audience reaction: and audiences liked Pirates 1 and (for reasons I'll never get) Transformers 1. (Critical reviews and audience reactions are correlated: but there is a bit of variance.) Here how the BOM audience marks (which do so well at predicting sequels) compare for the Goblet and Order: Gr..GoF.....OotPEven though these are based on 1000's of respondents, they are not significantly different. Now, of course a lot of individuals might have different views on the two movies: but in general, audience reaction was the same.
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My 5 cents on cinematic presentation of the Deathly Hallows story..... (It doubles for The Hobbit, too!) “If in the first act you have hung a pistol on the wall, then in the following one it should be fired. Otherwise don't put it there.” - A. P. Chekhov, Gurlyand's Reminiscences, and who knew why the Dog was long before the Shack! Last edited by Wimsey; July 11th, 2009 at 9:49 pm. |
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#448
July 13th, 2009, 4:54 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2603&p=.htm
Bruno takes the top spot at the box office this weekend, but only at $30.4 million. Bruno had a 38% drop from Friday to Saturday, which doesn't bode well for it in future weekends. Ice Age comes in a close second with a 32% drop at $28.5 million. T2:ROTFL comes in third falling 2 spots and losing 43% from last week to $24.2 million, but has raked in $339 million so far and pretty much(unless HBP repeats T2's success) will be the big BO winner in '09. What does this mean for HBP? It will hardly have any competition with Bruno, Ice Age, and T2 falling off, and likely all going below $20 million next weekend, which means that HBP will likely gross $80-$90 million this weekend. And thus, by the end of the 5 days could very well have $160 million to $180 million. As far as opening day is concerned, I think HBP could make over $50 million with the hype its getting and the fact that everyone will want to see HBP right away.
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Part 1 of the Hallows is here!! "Help will always be given at Hogwarts to those who ask for it"-Albus Dumbledore "You may not like him Minister, but you can't deny. Dumbledore's got style." "Your blood is much more precious than mine"-Albus Dumbledore "I must be the one to kill Harry Potter."-Lord Voldemort |
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#449
July 13th, 2009, 5:04 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
Do you know what I think will be funny? If HBP doesn't even come close to what TDK made, it will seem like the date change was for nothing.
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#450
July 13th, 2009, 5:21 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
I don't think HBP needs to come close to what TDK made. WB will still make some good money from HBP anyway. It doesn't have to be TDK numbers.
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#451
July 13th, 2009, 5:50 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
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From a Box Office point of view, WB is losing money with the July release. Mid-November is a much better release date than is mid-July because of the enormous Thanksgiving boosts: basically, the difference between Goblet and Order in ticket sales was the difference in having a huge holiday weekend in the 2nd week and not having that. At any rate, WB never thought that HP would come close to TDK, which sold nearly 20M more tickets than the best-selling HP film, and nearly 30M more tickets than HP films currently sell. Bruno is doing fine for the sort of film that it is. Baron Cohen films are not meant to be blockbusters (the R-ratings guarantee that, as does the lewd nature of the humor). However, as they cost nothing to make, these films probably are a profitable as many blockbusters. (What those profits really are, we shall never know: and if you work for the IRS, then you have been convinced that they are loses!) There is actually almost no evidence that "competition" greatly reduces ticket sales for films like HP: and Bruno is not going to be the film that provides this evidence! To this end, the fact that there will be no competition for Prince next weekend will mean nothing other than that the total box office will be largely Prince's. Instead of one of those huge weekends such as we see when there are two big pictures within a week of release out (e.g., late May 2007, with Shrek 3 & Pirates 3), we'll just see a big weekend. Mid-July is not a great time to grab "fence-sitters": you need a holiday like Thanksgiving for that. theprince18: I do not think that the "hype" will matter much for HBP. For one thing, much of the hype was buried by Jacko's death: for every one article about Prince's premiere on the entertainment sites, there were dozens about Jackson's death. (I only noticed any Prince articles because I was looking: I have yet to accidentally see something.) However, the total loss of publicity had no effect on ROTFL's box office: it was not like people forgot about going to see it after word of Jackson's death got out, and after the media stopped covering any other aspect of the entertainment industry. So, what should we expect for Prince's opening? CoS had a big drop in first week sales relative to PSS, but every HP film after that has had an increase: PSS: 22.5M ($164.4M)The number in parens shows how much money that would be at 2009 ticket prices. This is the typical pattern for sequels: more money up front. Do not be surprised to see HBP continue this with 25M tickets (~$183M) in its first week.
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My 5 cents on cinematic presentation of the Deathly Hallows story..... (It doubles for The Hobbit, too!) “If in the first act you have hung a pistol on the wall, then in the following one it should be fired. Otherwise don't put it there.” - A. P. Chekhov, Gurlyand's Reminiscences, and who knew why the Dog was long before the Shack! Last edited by Wimsey; July 13th, 2009 at 5:53 am. |
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#452
July 13th, 2009, 5:54 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
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It All Ends 15.7.2011
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#453
July 13th, 2009, 9:24 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
Looking at the stats you are posting, Wimsey, I am wondering how the half-lives and opening weekends domestically compare to worldwide. Or would that be too difficult to tell because of the many different release dates?
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And none will come after... Farewell to the Harry Potter films A true  - CoS and Pottermore!Going to miss CoS? I've started a free HP forums for any CoS refugees. Find it at this link. CoS is an amazing forum and will be difficult to replace. |
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#454
July 13th, 2009, 8:32 pm
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions DONE: but discussion continues!)
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The other problem is that they report international sales only weekly, at least in the States. I would not be surprised if, say, the daily tallies in the UK are posted somewhere: but I've not seen them! So, my guess is "yes": but that is just because I use uniformity as a guiding principle until it is demonstrated otherwise. By the way, about 74% of BOM respondents plan to see HBP in the theater, 2/3rds of them in the first week. By comparison, 83% planned to see ROTFL. Now, obviously this shows where BOM differs from the general population: they see a lot more films. You might not have noticed, but ROTFL is not on a pace to sell 240M tickets in N. America, for example....  What will be interesting to see is if this predicts the proportion of HBP's tickets. We'll have to make a correction for the fact that BOM users obviously are much more apt to see any film than are Joe & Jane Public; however, that should not be too hard! EDIT: There is an idea that rentals of HP films might go up markedly prior to the release of HP films. However, there is (again) no indication of this on the rental charts. For example, none of the HP films are in Netflix top 100: none of them are even in the top-25 scifi/fantasy films! We do not have numbers of rentals anymore, but when we did, numbers of rentals for anything other than the newest releases are a couple of orders of magnitude lower than opening week sales. Given that films like Star Wars are in the top 25, it seems very difficult to argue that there are tons of people "boning up" for the next HP film. EDIT 2: BOM users are predicting a $92.5M first weekend for Prince. That basically is about 1.5M more viewers than Order got in its first weekend. This would be completely in keeping with the tendency of sequels to have slightly bigger openings than the prior film. I'd bet a smidge lower: but I'd also not be at all surprised to see the BOMers get this right. Still, BOMer's were about $10M overly optimistic about Order's first weekend. Again, the trick is that this is a non-opening first weekend: and thus a lot of the ticket sales will be siphoned off by Wed. & Thursday.
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My 5 cents on cinematic presentation of the Deathly Hallows story..... (It doubles for The Hobbit, too!) “If in the first act you have hung a pistol on the wall, then in the following one it should be fired. Otherwise don't put it there.” - A. P. Chekhov, Gurlyand's Reminiscences, and who knew why the Dog was long before the Shack! Last edited by Wimsey; July 14th, 2009 at 7:01 pm. |
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#455
July 15th, 2009, 8:28 am
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Re: HP Box Office Discussion (Prince Predictions CLOSING 9 July!!)
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I just think that absent the mystery, and the driving search for clues, there may be a lessening of interest. Also, money is tight, so although it is a good summer for movies, the fact that there are other offerings that are also popular may start to tell. And the maturing audience may be tired of "school days" morality, and the lack of development of adult characters. Finally, even the foot traffic to this site is nothing like what it was 3 years ago. If you base box office on the traffic at mugglenet .... HBP could be an enormous flop! That said, I am thrilled to see the midnight showings being so plentiful and selling so well. Quote:
LOTR is just a totally different quality series. It upsets me even to see it on the same list as these other movies. I don't know what the "AP" or "CN" movies are in the list. (do you have any transporter stats? bonds? da vinci/dan brown movies? the Star Trek 2009?)
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 Last edited by FemmeCerebus; July 15th, 2009 at 8:39 am. |
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#456
July 15th, 2009, 8:33 am
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Re: Half-Blood Prince Box Office Analysis
I live in a town (not a city) yet they sold enough tickets to have two screens going at the first 12:05am viewing. And both of the theater rooms were packed wall to wall. In the crowd I was with, it was mostly under 30's there (I'm over 45 so I was looking for others my age or older). But they were true fans (I asked the groups sitting on both sides of me - they had all read the books countless times and seen the other movies countless times.). The most impressive things was the behavior of the audience - everyone cheered when the previews started - but when the HPB movie started, from the opening WB screenshot, there was absolutely NO TALKING during the entire movie. There was the occasional laugh, but the crowd was absolutely the most well behaved and attentive movie crowd I've sat in for all the Harry Potter movies. I plan to go back to the matinee later today, so I am sure others will do the same. My guess is it will be one of the two best grossing movies of the series so far. I don't think the length of time/delay between #5 and #6 hurt the franchise one bit.
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#457
July 15th, 2009, 9:07 am
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Re: Half-Blood Prince Box Office Analysis
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Not sure what this means for the box office, but I feel this surpasses the OotP midnight opening in my city. I think for OotP, the theatre I was at (same one as this time) only had three screens playing at midnight.
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 Believe me. I never betrayed James and Lily. I would have died before I betrayed them. |
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#458
July 15th, 2009, 10:07 am
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Re: Half-Blood Prince Box Office Analysis
It looks like the midnight record which is held by TDK ($18.5M) will probably be taken down.
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 ~ A dreamer is one who can only find his way by moonlight, and his punishment is that he sees the dawn before the rest of the world. ~
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#459
July 15th, 2009, 11:11 am
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Re: Half-Blood Prince Box Office Analysis
I live in a small town, but the line reached the parking lot for the midnight showing. And the building is pretty big, and the parking lot was far from the movie entrance! They used 4 theaters, although I was in the nearly deserted one, thank goodness
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Proud Gryffindor 
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#460
July 15th, 2009, 12:14 pm
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Re: Half-Blood Prince Box Office Analysis
It should do very well at the box office. I think it will surpass OotP.
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