Prophecy Night: Dumbledore vs. Trelawney

[blaqlives]

Discussion of the editorial Prophecy Night: Dumbledore vs. Trelawney by Carol Grizzard.

[Mae]

cool...that makes a lot of sense! i never really thought about it!

[Donal_Graeme]

I have to disagree. I don't see how Dumbledore would let Snape get away if he knew that Snape had gone back up to hear the prophecy. There is no evidence to report that the prophecy was repeated, and thus Snape had to have been listening from the beginning to get the first two sentences. What I think happened:

Snape was listening outside the door, through the keyhole most likely, when Dumbledore and Trewlawney are talking. She goes into her trance, and starts giving the prophecy. Snape hears the first two sentences through the keyhole, when lo and behold Aberforth shows up, and ask him what he is doing. Snape hastily backs up, and thus is no longer able to hear the prophecy. Snape fudges around a bit, and Aberforth decides to open the door and show his brother who he had caught eavesdropping. By then Trelawney had finished the prophecy, and so she remembers that the door open and Aberforth was holding Snape. I just don't see enough evidence to support this editorial.

[Ivje]

Originally Posted by Donal_Graeme

I have to disagree. I don't see how Dumbledore would let Snape get away if he knew that Snape had gone back up to hear the prophecy. There is no evidence to report that the prophecy was repeated, and thus Snape had to have been listening from the beginning to get the first two sentences. What I think happened:

Snape was listening outside the door, through the keyhole most likely, when Dumbledore and Trewlawney are talking. She goes into her trance, and starts giving the prophecy. Snape hears the first two sentences through the keyhole, when lo and behold Aberforth shows up, and ask him what he is doing. Snape hastily backs up, and thus is no longer able to hear the prophecy. Snape fudges around a bit, and Aberforth decides to open the door and show his brother who he had caught eavesdropping. By then Trelawney had finished the prophecy, and so she remembers that the door open and Aberforth was holding Snape. I just don't see enough evidence to support this editorial.

I completely agree with you

[EmilyRadcliffe]

Originally Posted by Donal_Graeme
I have to disagree. I don't see how Dumbledore would let Snape get away if he knew that Snape had gone back up to hear the prophecy. There is no evidence to report that the prophecy was repeated, and thus Snape had to have been listening from the beginning to get the first two sentences. What I think happened:

Snape was listening outside the door, through the keyhole most likely, when Dumbledore and Trewlawney are talking. She goes into her trance, and starts giving the prophecy. Snape hears the first two sentences through the keyhole, when lo and behold Aberforth shows up, and ask him what he is doing. Snape hastily backs up, and thus is no longer able to hear the prophecy. Snape fudges around a bit, and Aberforth decides to open the door and show his brother who he had caught eavesdropping. By then Trelawney had finished the prophecy, and so she remembers that the door open and Aberforth was holding Snape. I just don't see enough evidence to support this editorial.

I think I agree with this view...but the editorial itself was well written and raised some interesting points.

[roach76]

Could it just simply a small unforseen mistake by the authors part? NO offense JK, it could have been a simple misunderstaning in remembering what was written in the OotP and then HBP.

I also noticed the contradiction. I guess my focus was on the fact it was Snape who had been the eavesdropper. It was after when I read the two books after one another that I saw, still the focus was more on Snape and Malfoy.

[DDFAN]

I like this editorial because it addresses one of the many questions I have yet to fully explain. The book certainly reads as though Trelawney finished the entire prophecy and Snape was present. So, would he not have therefore heard the ENTIRE propehcy? Yet, Dumbledore tells us the spy heard only the first part. Perhaps a struggle ensued with Aberforth right at the door as Aberforth interrupts Snape's eavesdropping and although the prophecy does continue, Snape does not hear it. By the time Aberforth brings Snape through the door, the prophecy is over. Dumbledore will definitely mislead, tell part of the truth, omit things and he certainly operates on a need to know basis. He does not tell anyone "everything," even when he says he has. Whether this falls under "lying" or not is probably splitting hairs, but he does say specifically that only "the first part" of the prophecy was heard. A simple scuffle at the door would explain this but this is all supposition. What I find even more interesting is what happened afterwards. I too do not believe Dumbledore would simply allow a Death Eater back with this information.

[Tulp]

But did Dumbledore, at that time, know that Snape was a Death Eater?

if he didn't know, he wouldn't have had much reason to go looking for Snape after the incident...

Good editorial, though! It raises some good points about the prophecy!

[rookwood]

Hey guyz, these are wizards we are talking about isnt it. Maybe what happened was that Aberforth caught Snape midway through the prophecy and Dumbeldore just put a spell (like the "Muffliato" spell that Harry uses) on Snape and Aberforth so that they couldn't listen to the rest of the prophecy. Hence only two people know the full contents, Harry and Dumbeldore.

[DDFAN]

Originally Posted by rookwood

Hey guyz, these are wizards we are talking about isnt it. Maybe what happened was that Aberforth caught Snape midway through the prophecy and Dumbeldore just put a spell (like the "Muffliato" spell that Harry uses) on Snape and Aberforth so that they couldn't listen to the rest of the prophecy. Hence only two people know the full contents, Harry and Dumbeldore.

Indeed !

[Snivelly]

Originally Posted by Donal_Graeme

I have to disagree. I don't see how Dumbledore would let Snape get away if he knew that Snape had gone back up to hear the prophecy. There is no evidence to report that the prophecy was repeated, and thus Snape had to have been listening from the beginning to get the first two sentences. What I think happened:

Snape was listening outside the door, through the keyhole most likely, when Dumbledore and Trewlawney are talking. She goes into her trance, and starts giving the prophecy. Snape hears the first two sentences through the keyhole, when lo and behold Aberforth shows up, and ask him what he is doing. Snape hastily backs up, and thus is no longer able to hear the prophecy. Snape fudges around a bit, and Aberforth decides to open the door and show his brother who he had caught eavesdropping. By then Trelawney had finished the prophecy, and so she remembers that the door open and Aberforth was holding Snape. I just don't see enough evidence to support this editorial.

The editorial in itslef was very well written, but I think I agree with the above version of events more. The latter is certainly more plausible. But like someone else pointed out, it might just be a mistake on JK's part, but that seems a little hazy, as this is such an important part of the plot.

[starchica]

Actually, I had always thought that Snape had heard the whole prophecy, and that Snape and Aberforth had burst in right after Trelawney said the prophecy. But Snape, maybe becuase Dumbledore intercepted him before he could leave the Hog's Head and somehow convinced him to join the Order, only told Voldemort the first half, even though he had heard it all, and that's why Dumbledore trusts Snape.

[Shewoman]

Thanks for reading my editorial! I tend to doubt that this is a mistake on JKR's part; it is an important part of the story and I think part of what she's doing in Half-Blood Prince is making us question who is trustworthy--Dumbledore as well as Snape.

According to my editorial, Dumbledore doesn't have to have known that Snape overheard the prophecy (if Aberforth had already taken him away). If Snape heard it while they were standing in the doorway, Dumbledore obviously knew that he had.

Donal, Trelawney heard the scuffle outside of the door before it opened to reveal Snape and Aberforth. Therefore she wasn't giving the prophecy at that time or she couldn't have remembered it.

Starchica, Dumbledore says he believes it was Snape's remorse over having endangered by Potters (by telling the prophecy) that led him to "return" (Half-Blood 549, American hardback [in The Seer Overheard]). If he's right, then Snape didn't join the Order that night.

[lilyp]

I agree that JKR would not make such a mistake. It's important to the plot. I agree that your suggestion is possible, but I also think it is possible that Aberforth caught Snape when Trelawney had just began to tell the prophecy, and from this moment on they were making too much noise and they wouldn't be able to listen to anything else.
Donal Graeme, Dumbledore let Snape get away knowing that he had overheard a part of the prophecy and that he was eavesdropping. Your theory doesn't change that.

[justaHPfan]

Congratulations, Carol! Great job! I'm glad this topic came up as it bothered me when I read it in HBP!

from the editorial (I would love to see Snape waffle)

So would I!

Originally Posted by Donal_Graeme

I have to disagree. I don't see how Dumbledore would let Snape get away if he knew that Snape had gone back up to hear the prophecy. There is no evidence to report that the prophecy was repeated, and thus Snape had to have been listening from the beginning to get the first two sentences. What I think happened:

Snape was listening outside the door, through the keyhole most likely, when Dumbledore and Trewlawney are talking. She goes into her trance, and starts giving the prophecy. Snape hears the first two sentences through the keyhole, when lo and behold Aberforth shows up, and ask him what he is doing. Snape hastily backs up, and thus is no longer able to hear the prophecy. Snape fudges around a bit, and Aberforth decides to open the door and show his brother who he had caught eavesdropping. By then Trelawney had finished the prophecy, and so she remembers that the door open and Aberforth was holding Snape. I just don't see enough evidence to support this editorial.

This is a possibility, actually. However, given that Trelawney's voice sounds "harsh" and is probably louder than her "misty" normal voice, even a scuffle outside the door wouldn't prevent Snape from catching snatches of it - plus, even if he did miss what it said, he would know that it continued. Dumbledore makes it sound as if Snape didn't know he missed part of it.

from the editorial My -- our -- one stroke of good fortune was that the eavesdropper was detected only a short way into the prophecy and thrown from the building...He heard only the first part, the part foretelling the birth of a boy in July to parents who had thrice defied Voldemort. Consequently, he could not warn his master that to attack you would be to risk transferring power to you -- again marking you as his equal.

(emphasis mine)
If Snape had thought there was more to the prophecy, he would have said, "But Master, I only heard part of it and there's more, but I know who it was spoken to," and Voldemort would probably have done more searching prior to acting. Now, of course, Dumbledore could mean the eavesdropper was detected and thrown immediately from the building, which implies Snape was seen by Trelawney prior to giving the prophecy (which could support both Donal_Graeme's and the editorial's view) or Dumbledore could mean that the eavesdropper was detected and eventually thrown from the building, thus giving time for Snape to then be dragged into the room after the prophecy was finished, which supports Donal_Graeme's view more so. If that's the case, Aberforth would have to have told Albus for sure what was overheard, as Albus wouldn't have known otherwise, also meaning that Aberforth overheard part of the prophecy as well.

One thing we know for almost certain is that when Trelawney does give a real prediction, not only does she not remember, but she also has no concept of time passing. For her, one thing bleeds into another with just a small awareness that something wasn't quite right, hence her statement about feeling odd. I do find important to note that Trelawney says she felt odd (or was starting to) and then Snape interrupted. This could still support both views as Trelawney wouldn't know that "odd" translated to a prophecy and could still have given it prior to seeing Snape (thus the bleeding over from "feeling odd" to being interrupted and not remembering or knowing that anything occurred in between) - or Trelawney could have started feeling odd, seen Snape and then started giving the prophecy and Aberforth (who is probably more intelligent than we think) got him out of there quickly. Given that the prophecy is separated by the "..." it probably implies that Trelawney pauses for significant moments in between statements. Snape could have thought she were done if Aberforth had managed to drag him out of earshot during one of those pauses. The important thing, no matter how it went down, is for Snape to believe he heard it all.

Originally Posted by rookwood

Hey guyz, these are wizards we are talking about isnt it. Maybe what happened was that Aberforth caught Snape midway through the prophecy and Dumbeldore just put a spell (like the "Muffliato" spell that Harry uses) on Snape and Aberforth so that they couldn't listen to the rest of the prophecy. Hence only two people know the full contents, Harry and Dumbeldore.

This is interesting as "muffliato" was one of the spells that Harry got from the HBP's potions book. I'm not saying that Snape invented it, though it's possible, or that neither Dumbledores knew of it/used it, just that if it were used, Snape likely would recognize it's use (hear the bees buzzing in his ear! ) as he was familiar with it. Unless, of course, you believe that Snape still carried his NEWT potions book on him and, like a diary, made comments in it even after school ended! (which, now that I think about it, could happen if it's not the most likely scenario!)

Originally Posted by Tulp

But did Dumbledore, at that time, know that Snape was a Death Eater?

if he didn't know, he wouldn't have had much reason to go looking for Snape after the incident...

This is a good question. Though I like to think that Albus knows pretty much everything (he certainly knew who Avery & co. were when Voldemort came to request the teaching position years earlier), I don't understand how he would let Snape go if Dumbledore knew Snape overheard part of the prophecy and knew that Snape was a Death Eater.

This leads me to believe that Snape interrupted Trelawney and Albus prior to her giving the prophecy and was probably being taken out and down the stairs by Aberforth when Trelawney went into her prediction. Think about it - the door opens, "waffling occurs" (love that Carol!) and Aberforth makes to remove Snape and "escort" him downstairs. Albus doesn't shut the door because, to him, the interview is over and he's getting ready to leave anyway. During this time (whether before or after Snape is forced out), Trelawney goes into her trance, and Albus shuts the door but not before Aberforth and Snape overhear the first part and Snape is either 1) thrown from the bar during a pause or 2) manages to escape Aberforth himself if Aberforth were planning to hold him.

Though this still doesn't satisfy me completely. Why would Dumbledore not look for Snape to question him if he thought him associated with Voldemort and knew he was eavesdropping around the time when Trelawney gave a prophecy about Voldemort? The only answers to this are 1) Albus doesn't know Snape is a Death Eater, 2) Aberforth didn't tell Albus (or wasn't aware) that Snape overheard the prophecy, or 3) Albus was under the blissful assumption that since Snape realized he was caught by Albus, he would "do the right thing" and not choose to go back to the Death Eaters (I really don't see this as likely to be honest, and only included it as it was the only other scenario I could think of! Dumbledore may make mistakes, but he isn't so naive or foolish!)

[mo1]

Good editorial. I was absolutely certain that Snape must have overheard the whole of the prophecy, but now, I'm not so sure.

Originally Posted by lilyp

I agree that your suggestion is possible, but I also think it is possible that Aberforth caught Snape when Trelawney had just began to tell the prophecy, and from this moment on they were making too much noise and they wouldn't be able to listen to anything else.

That might have been possible, but we have seen Snape using a Pensieve in OotP and we know from Harry's experience that the memories in the Pensieve are full of things that are not consiously heard. So Dumbledore would be probably wrong thinking that Snape has never known the full content of the prophecy even if he had not heard the whole of it that night.

Anyway, has anyone thought that Snape could simply have lied convincingly to everybody by claiming not to have overheard more than the beginning ? He is a wonderful occlumens after all.

Donal Graeme, Dumbledore let Snape get away knowing that he had overheard a part of the prophecy and that he was eavesdropping. Your theory doesn't change that.

Very right and very strange. I have wondered if Dumbledore could not have try and obliviate Snape, but (partially) failed because of Snape's skills. Snape would have faked not to remember anything and Dumbledore would have known the truth only when Snape have come to apply for a job.

[phrodo]

also . . . Trelawney is a bit tipsy when she talks to Harry, and does not realize the full significance of any of this, so it could be simply that she is less careful with the details.

[DDFAN]

Originally Posted by Shewoman

Thanks for reading my editorial! I tend to doubt that this is a mistake on JKR's part; it is an important part of the story and I think part of what she's doing in Half-Blood Prince is making us question who is trustworthy--Dumbledore as well as Snape.

According to my editorial, Dumbledore doesn't have to have known that Snape overheard the prophecy (if Aberforth had already taken him away). If Snape heard it while they were standing in the doorway, Dumbledore obviously knew that he had.

Starchica, Dumbledore says he believes it was Snape's remorse over having endangered by Potters (by telling the prophecy) that led him to "return" (Half-Blood 549, American hardback [in The Seer Overheard]). If he's right, then Snape didn't join the Order that night.

We have yet to learn Dumbledore's real reason for Snape's return to the "good: side. Dumbledore's sentence is cut off: "I believe it to be the greatest regret of his life and the reason that he returned ---"Returned to what? He tells Harry Snape was really remorseful, but he doesn't say that is why he trusts him or why he returned. Nor does he tell us exactly why Snape was so remorseful when, as Lupin says, he "hated" James. We do know that Snaped turned spy before Lord Voldemort's fall, this would have been before Voldemort attacked Harry. Dumbledore also knows exactly what part of the prophecy Voldemort heard through the spy. I believe that even this far back that events were beginning to be orchestrated by Dumbledore. I do think you are correct in that the prophecies were handled very carefully and it unlikely that JKR made a mistake. As for trustworthiness, I believe that we can indeed trust Dumbledore to do what is necessary to defeat Voldemort and that will require information going out on on a need to know basis as well as disinformation campaigns. As for Snape, I still believe him loyal to Dumbledore, but I imagine JKR is finding the big debate on Snape's loyalties and Dumblodore's trust to be just what she wanted.

I have to wonder why Dumbledore, with Snape in his presence right after hearing the prophecy, did not simply modify his memory before he had a chance to tell Voldemort, or anyone (in the unlikely scenario that Dumbledore did not know Snape was a Death Eater.) Hmmm.... (No - I do not believe that Snape, as capable a wizard as he is, could have prevented Dumbledore from doing so.)

[Shewoman]

Thanks for your responses, everybody.

justa, good point about Snape apparently not telling Voldemort "this is part of a prophecy." Do we have any idea when Dumbledore became aware that Snape was a Death-Eater?

phrodo, you're certainly right about Trelawney's drunkenness. But she's clearly right that Snape was there, since the only reason we know about it is that she said so (and then Dumbledore confirmed it). She may be wrong about some of the timing, but she heard the scuffle and saw the door fly open; she must be right about that.

DDFan, It's interesting that we're told that Dumbledore was a Legilimens but the only time I'm aware of his using it was on Kreacher after Sirius' death (Phoenix p. 832 in "The Lost Prophecy"). Somehow it doesn't seem like his style to modify people's memories. After all, he emphasizes the importance of people's choices so much. I'm not sure he'd take Snape's choice away from him.

I didn't mean to imply that Dumbledore had cleared up why he trusted Snape in that conversation with Harry. In Goblet when he mentions his testimony concerning Snape before the Wizengamot, he says Snape "rejoined our side before Lord Voldemort's fall and turned spy for us, at great personal risk" (pp. 590-1 in "The Pensieve"). I think it's reasonable to assume that he is speaking here and on Half-Blood 549 of the same event--Snape's coming to work for him. In Goblet he said "rejoined" and in Half-Blood it's "returned."

[DDFAN]

Dumbledore modifies thoughts and memories as well as perceptions of events when it is necessary to do so. In HBP p. 265 he modifies Mrs. Coles's memories and perceptions with a simply wave of the wand across a blank piece of paper when he realizes she is an inoconveniently astutue woman. He also ensures that in OOTP when the ministry officials wake up after being jinxed by him that they will be unaware that any time has passed.

As for legilimency, I think he uses it often at a very surface level on Harry (can't risk any deeper levels as we discover in OOTP) as we are told many times that Harry feels as though he is being "x-rayed." There are also numerous times in the books where Dumbledore knows exactly what Harry is thinking.